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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pass pass who wrote (45456)	12/28/2000 3:46:29 PM
From: bambs	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77399

Tech will always outperform everything else. Nasdaq will be 10,000 someday. tech didn't even out perform bonds this year... the nasdaq won't be 10,000 in the next 20 years the nasdaq will be lucky to be over 3000 in the year 2010... considering the nasdaq will likely sell off to 1000 area over the next year or so...it will take a incredible return to come back to even 3000 by 2010. baby boomers are going to suck the life blood out of the market and the economy over the next 15 years.... bambs

To: pass pass who wrote (45456)	12/28/2000 4:07:19 PM
From: John Koligman	Respond to of 77399

If you look back at history, certain groups 'outperform' for a period of time and then go dormant, either for long periods of time or 'forever'. The railroads were the place to be a hundred years ago, that resulted in overbuilding and a bust. When the auto industry started, it was kind of like the PC industry at first, hundreds of small companies, most eventually went bust, and the industry matured with a couple of large players. Twenty years ago oil was going to $100/barrel and the energy sector soared, becoming a much larger percentage of the S&P, kind of like tech today. Keep in mind that tech also has long periods where it has underperformed, like when the tech sector cracked in 1983 and did not come back for years. Regards, John

To: pass pass who wrote (45456)	12/28/2000 8:06:10 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77399

pass pass, If you look at CSCO's loans the could write the entire sum off in one quarter and the hit to earnings would be less than half a cent. If I recall CSCO has less than $400M (or around there) in total loans. Still, I don't think it's a waste of time to talk about technology and the fact that other carriers will pick up the load. The reason that I suggest looking at it that way is that for every "bad loan" CSCO has "x" number of good loans/investments. I simply think it's unrealistic to expect CSCO to succeed in every investment and every loan that they make... and many of our fellow bears make a habit of pointing out the failures of CSCO ignoring the successes and the bulls do the opposite. The truth is somewhere in between... However, from a technology macro view the market continues to steam ahead. That all said we can't expect to support a 100% increase in the number of carriers when the market will only support a 20% or 30% increase. On balance though there is growth and on balance these carriers - new and old - build out infrastructure and use equipment from Nortel, Juniper, Sycamore, Cisco, Redback, Extreme, and others to execute. Not only do the carriers build out but so too do brick and mortar companies looking for web presence - whether it's in the form of supporting their own IT or whether through outsources like EXDS. NAZ 10,000..... not so sure about that one but I do believe - unlike some that the NAZ will get back to it's highs within the next 5 years if not sooner. OG