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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: sam who wrote (15598)12/28/2000 4:05:18 PM
From: SJS  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 24042
 
I am suggesting to read the piece and think through one person's opinion as you decide for yourself.

As each investor tries to piece together the reasons for this selloff, and what will happen next, data gathering is important. If folks don't like Cramer, there are plenty of others that you can read to test their ideas out.

My own personal opinion is that I believe the demand is temporarily moderating from mega/ultra torrid growth we've seen. That ONLY means that we don't grow at 500% a year, we grow at 300% year (as an incorrectly quantified, but correct analogy). Will we return again to the former days of yester-year (Lone Ranger lingo....)?

I don't know, but suspect not to the initial ramp growth rates.

I am always searching/waiting for more data to corroborate my hypothesis. However, Jon Joseph of SSB semicon calls this summer were prescient. If you followed his advice, you'd have very little semicon holdings now and would probably be much wealthier (if you owned semicon stocks).

Steve

PS: There are already people parading onto CNBC that are indicating that MSFT will never see their old growth rates again. Do you agree with that hypothesis?



To: sam who wrote (15598)12/29/2000 10:13:15 AM
From: SJS  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 24042
 
More data Sam. Now there's also a lawsuit (against FDRY)....but the data's more important, I would think:
_____________

Internet Infrastructure : The Foundry Networks (FDRY) earnings warning was the first hint that something was amiss in this sector, and yesterday's f5 (FFIV) warning provided further reason for concern. As we wrote yesterday on this page, negative comments from Bear Stearns about CacheFlow (CFLO) and Inktomi (INKT) added to the worries. This morning, Bear Stearns officially downgraded both stocks. We listened to the f5 conference call to try to get some more color on just what is going wrong in this sector. The company said that almost all of its fairly dramatic revenue shortfall was due to a "rapid" slowdown in North American business. It was also noted that this was generally not a competitive issue, but was an issue of weakening demand for all players in the industry. f5 said that the dotcom market was clearly the greatest single point of weakness. But -- and this should be a concern for investors in other networking companies -- f5 officials clearly stated that they are seeing a slowdown in the core enterprise networking market. In the enterprise market, the company noted that it was generally an issue of project delays, but they have significant concerns about the duration of these delays which is prompting both a restructuring and layoffs. The only company-specific issue that was mentioned was weaker than expected sales of f5's caching product, which was due to the lack of streaming functionality. Overall, this was not a comforting call for investors in Internet infrastructure companies. The fact that sales weakness was seen at both dotcoms and enterprises is worrisome. The direct competition in this space includes Nortel's (NT) Alteon acquisition, Cisco's (CSCO) Arrowpoint acquisition, Radware (RDWR), Foundry, and to a lesser extent Extreme (EXTR). Radware reaffirmed its guidance yesterday, but Foundry has of course already warned. And concerns should extend beyond the Layer 4-7 switching market and into the enterprise networking market more generally, which is served by CSCO, NT, EXTR, and Cabletron's (CS) Riverstone division. These companies were seen as the Internet plumbers and were thought to be immune to dotcom problems. But the broader economic slowdown appears to be pushing these problems beyond dotcoms and into the enterprise. - Greg Jones, Briefing.com