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Non-Tech : Conseco Insurance (CNO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lane Weatherly who wrote (3857)	12/28/2000 4:38:29 PM
From: Bryan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4155

To be honest, it's been a long time since I've traded CNC based on it's prospects for a short squeeze. That was back in June, when all the gloom&doomers were coming out of the woodwork calling for a Conseco Bankruptcy. But back then the rally was due in part to a squeeze. The environment is different now and it favors financials and insurers and I'm wondering (just a hunch here) if CNC will really benefit from the current sector rotation. You probably would see CNC much higher if it were not for it's bad management history. Considering that: 1) The Fed's policy stance is in an easing mode (and we'll probably see at least 100 basis points worth of cuts). 2) Slowing economy will favor financials and insurers. 3) Conseco's debt has been upgraded. 4) Wendt could actually turn this company around (Hell, he did a bang-up job with GE Cap). It just might have the power behind it to rally hard. I'm sure there are a many more fundamental arguments for CNC going higher. But my point is that there are now some fundamental reasons for CNC to rally. You really could not argue these fundamental points 6 months/1 year ago. In fact, there was more emphasis on all the negatives surrounding CNC. Toss a short squeeze into the picture and it just strengthens the overall argument for a higher valuation. I'm just thinking out loud. I really don't feel the need to take any profit or hedge here. I'd rather wait and see if we break and hold above this $11-$12 area. It's held several times. If I was short, I would not cover unless it closed clearly above the prior areas of resistance. I'd be nervous here though....that's for sure. <g> Good luck, -B