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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2768)	12/28/2000 10:51:47 PM
From: Ahda	Respond to of 3536

Don't enjoy it too much, since we are probably going into a protracted period of a wide "range bound " market (just waiting for earnings to catch up with still rich valuations). Zeev A large portion of estimates of earning had to do with the telecommunications industry cost savings and projections of greater profit to the base sector. This enthusiasm of tech set the whole world in an lets buy USA mode in my opinion. Our earnings are stating this was fad based. The European nations though Ron disagrees with me on potential have a populous base of about 320 million and a high service output. Tracking down debt I have not yet done so I am just assuming their is a conservative aspect to Europe as well as Asia. Japan had a very tight employment base prior to her currency problems the difference was part of hers was due to loyalty ours is due to no such thing . One would assume in our situation there where the employment market is so tight that profits would be abounding in industry creating growth but this is not the case. All rests on technology to increase production and lower costs. However we are not seeing either at this moment. Looking at earnings and playing catch up to rich evaluations is another question. How can this be done when you are paying premium for employees or are the figures off, which is entirely possible as revisions of fed stats are occurring. How can this be done when due to excessive inflation within our dollar and minds being like prove technology can and is being produced elsewhere at more competitive cost. I now go to the retail sector if there are excess dollars they do flow during the holiday season .It appears competition is so stiff within the industry that there is no flow. This leads me to believe combined with increased gas cost and energy that we are in the beginning of an inflationary period the likes of which we have never seen. I agree about AG but on an entirely different premise. If it appears there is a slowing the debt level minus profitable earnings continues to grow. Lowering the rates is a temporary relief to maintain an economy that has a diminishing export base and increasing import base. It boils down to if we bought other nations business at our high dollar rate and if presently our dollar is not quite as valued as it was in the international market we have taken on debt in fixed dollar that might have to be paid with lesser dollar. The Baht dropped and Japan sunk we could find as the Euro raises we will sink. Our dollar I fear could end up with little buying power. Ron you can come back at me with without the US the rest of the world is in trouble we have greed appetites. Our retail figures are saying we aren’t so hungry nor is the profit in USA so gargantuan. We do like to serve papers , cellular phones are next as the profits are truly vast in the private company world of law. Too bad we just didn’t care about preventing damages to life period instead of creating profit from misery.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2768)	12/28/2000 11:51:48 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 3536

Well Zeev, I can see the bursting of the internet bubble as something that had to eventually occur. But the valuations of the stock market are one thing and the unwillingness of consumers to maintain the "cool heads" you desire, quite another. I'm worried about people hunkering down to such an extent that they move to irrational pessimism and cause more damage than necesary to economic growth worldwide. Fear is incredibly contagious and self-perpetuating. Even more so, imo, than the greed that AG worries about. Especially as companies like Montgomery Ward close their doors and lay off 37,000 workers in one fell swoop. Events like that will quickly bite into your theory that unemployment is still worrisomely high. Consumer confidence is barely above where it was in Sept, 1998 when LTCM almost caused a financial lock up. One that was only avoided by the Fed rapidly cutting rates 3/4 points over a month and flooding the system with liquidity. Now why is it so unreasonable to expect the Fed to act moderately over time, rather than being forced to rashly act at the last minute. We all know that interest rate moves require months to take effect. The Fed should be proactive in making sure that the pain doesn't become panic. As it stands now, I get the sense that it causes more instability than it resolves. Regards, Ron

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2768)	12/29/2000 12:39:14 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

I can understand Bush, he is not too smart, but Cheney? Two reasons... the primary one is to cover his @ss so he's on the record about the slowing economy occurring BEFORE he took the reins. After all, look what happened to his father in 1992 when the democratic cry was "It's the economy, stupid!". They road on the coattails of an economic recovery already in place. Bush Jr. wants to make sure the US public recognizes the irony, as well as the problems the clinton/gore administration has left on his shoulders (like soaring energy prices). The secondary one is, I believe, a two pronged intellectual attack on AG and the Fed, who believe the US cannot support higher growth and low inflation in combination. Paul O'neill appears to be quite telling in this regard as he personally holds such a belief and he has been AG's friend for many years. Final point... if the government politicians are only going to spend the surplus anyway (tough to justify placing additional pressure on an already tight market in US bonds paying down debt), then why not give it back and left people use it as they see fit. The government knows even less about how to make that money grow than the US public. Btw, did you see how Clinton claimed we would be debt free in 2010? What a sleazy bastard!! Why would anyone wish to hold US dollars if they have no safety or liquidity in US government bonds? Where will the world park it's extra capital? I'll be the first to admit I haven't fully thought out the ramifications of a what a debt free US government would mean to our economy or USD... But more than likely, I'll never be faced with such a situation. Regards, Ron

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2768)	12/29/2000 12:52:25 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

People have short memories, until the consumer confidence index drops back well under 100 (it used to hover for a long time in the 70), the consumer is still overconfident. I think the more important thing at this time will be the direction and not the level. It's true that a reading near 100 is historically high - when 100 was passed in early 97 it was the first time since the 60s that it had been there - but the sharpness of the decline will give the Fed pause. In 1990, the Michigan index was reading about 80 when we entered the recession. By the time we bottomed out, it was below 60. It's very possible, even if we have a recession now, that the index will not go below 90. This will be 20 points from its high and would be a sufficient loss in confidence to spell recession.