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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (37141)	12/29/2000 9:23:21 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Frank, The internet device sector is in its infancy, but is clearly exploding, and for the next 6 to 18 months, it would seem Q is the only game in town. Japan's iMode is by far the most successful game in town. I realize its limitations, culturally and otherwise, when it comes to contemplating world-wide use, but it's important that we appreciate the success of the competition. That gives [CDMA] time to grow a value chain of immense power. I agree with you to a point. But the quicker the value chain grows, the more powerful it will become. The longer it takes, the greater the possibility that it will be less strong than it would ideally be. For me, the point Eric makes that hits home the strongest is his contention that Q's control over the standard might not be as strong in the end as we had hoped. Though it's expected that Q will benefit hugely from the wide deployment of WCDMA, there's little question that if CDMA2000 doesn't eventually dominate total CDMA use, Q will have less control over its value chain. I fully expect to see cdma PC cards and laptops with antennas become a commonplace sight by the end of 2001. I think you're being overly optimistic in that projection. I realize that I tend to be less optimistic about product adoption than most around here, but my experience is that most tech investors are overly optimistic and usually very wrong about that. Not to brag, but do you remember the discussion in late summer (or early fall at the latest) when I was the lone dissenter disagreeing with everyone who thought a new licensing agreement with Nokia was months if not one month away? That's just one example. --Mike Buckley

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (37141)	12/29/2000 11:00:58 AM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Frank, << my portfolio is over 30% qcom, and I don't feel a need to reduce it at this critical point in time. Am I missing something? >> Certainly not. You have done your homework as I have done mine. I would hate to see "GroupThink" at work here. You happen to be just a little nuttier than I am <g> holding the 2nd coldest tech sector at 30% of port. I hold that sector at 21.7% which is plenty nutty in and of itself. As a matter of portfolio balance I choose to hold no single equity at more than 20% of my total portfolio at year end. That is an absolute fundamental of my investing philosophy. You choose to play wireless with one gorilla equity. I have chosen to play it with 2. One is a gorilla. One is a king. It is not a basket anymore than my holding EMC/NTAP is a basket. I still hold all of my original 1/5/99 QUALCOMM investment (but no more). It is up 1298%. It equates to 16.7% of my portfolio and it is my largest equity position. [I've decided to hold off on TXN for the moment ... SpinCo will be my wireless chip play and I will determine after one year or so whether or not it is the best wireless chip play ... pretty hard to evaluate at this time.] << Bandwidth is being auctioned off for BILLIONS, and the cost of carrying this debt to the "successful" bidders could be ruinous. >> And that's why the sector is so cold. The "successful" bidders will be fine. Some of the vendors who are financing at 125% to 300% of value of the new networks are going to be hurting. There are few "NextWaves" in this game. << High speed cdma systems are installed and at work in Korea >> One "medium speed" 1xMC is installed. I'm not sure one could say yet that it is "at work". It should be by spring however. << aren't they the fastest game in town for data? >> Till June. << As a result, they will be able to offer feature rich services that their competitors can't match, and will surely gain market share as a result. >> Feature rich services, and data transmission speed are 2 different entities. << And the same scenario is being played out in Japan. >> Right. What the Japanese consider to be "feature rich services" are blowing data transmission speed away. << GSM .. is a voice-centric game. >> GPRS is a data-centric game. << how long will the others wait for GPRS/WCDMA before they start pounding at Qualcomm's door? >> I'm waiting. << Dr. J ... when he was modest earlier in the year, we criticized him for it and begged for him to refute the FUDD >> Could you provide an example of the FUDD you are referring to? I don't think anybody asked him to refute anything with DUF. << how many humble self made billionaires are there in the high tech world? >> Larry Ellison? Bill Gates? Steve Jobs? Marc Lassus? - Eric -