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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2775)12/29/2000 10:52:55 AM
From: Robert Douglas  Respond to of 3536
 
Zeev,

If the Fed waits for 4.5% unemployment, it will be too late, we will be in a recession.

The civilian unemployment rate is classified as a leading indicator at peaks and a lagging indicator at troughs. However there hasn't been in time in the last 35 years, maybe longer, that the unemployment rate has risen a half a percent without a recession.