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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (52150)	12/29/2000 8:59:46 AM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

At Least $NDX 2300 - Probably before the end of January At Least $NDX 1800 - In 2001

To: AllansAlias who wrote (52150)	12/29/2000 9:41:32 AM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

I don't see the basis for any kind of sizable Naz rally. You still haven't had anything remotely resembling capitulation. In this last dump, the put-call ratio never even broke 0.9! Sentiment is still largely optimistic, and forecasts still all reflect the soft-landing scenario. How much longer can it possibly be before people catch on that soft landing is a myth? When that realization hits home, there is no way the Clownbux will flow into the market. And absent strong inflows from the sheeple, the market will continue to tremble and shake like a junkie gone cold turkey. What most people don't understand is that the risk premium usually afforded stocks isn't there because of the risk to the earnings flow. It's there due to the risk to invested principal if you happen to want it back when the inflows just aren't there. The stock inflows are gone (check Trimtabs) and they will not return until J6P has saved some cash and starts returning to the market. Until then, the market will continue sinking until it hits a point that the strong players recognize value in the representative pieces of the companies they are investing in. That said, I agree with your "bite the middle" approach, and I've scaled back my exposure appropriately. BC