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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (65457)	12/29/2000 3:22:33 PM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 99985

Deep Thoughts: I wish I had all the money in the world so I could buy all the stock everyone is selling.

To: HairBall who wrote (65457)	12/29/2000 3:26:41 PM
From: LTK007	Respond to of 99985

LG,i have a breakdown on my wedge line for COMPX as of 10 minutes ago--better rally up now:) max

To: HairBall who wrote (65457)	12/29/2000 4:45:09 PM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

This is the Year of Y2K. On Jan 1, many where thinking, nah secretly hoping that the computer wouldn't start. But that was never the problem; it was that computer demand wouldn't increase. The chipmakers blame the box makers; the box makers blame the consumer. But in all the finger pointing there is only one person to blame: The Fed. In 98 Greenspan lowered interests rates and fed fund rates to an overly severe limit. This was to bail out many of the crashing world markets and CB's. But this also reinstated the boom-bust cycle of economics; and the New Paradigm was over. What takes weeks to lower, take years to work off. The excess lower would eventually cause the Fed to raise rates in a low inflation environment; some would say deflating environment. This has a direct affect on growth. And as growth domestic product plummets, so does the equity that depends on it for support. In early 2000 it was clear that GDP just wasn't going to be there, yet the Nasdaq found a way to elevate itself to lofty new highs. Now that the Nasdaq has fallen some -51.84% people are crying for Greenspan to lower. In deed small investors see no bottom for the markets even at today's prices. Yet if you are expecting Greenspan to help, then you truly haven't been following the Fed. The FED doesn't consider stock markets as a primal source of wealth for the economy. But it does consider Job's; CPI, & PPI as prime components. To place faith in the US Fed to act, when there is no need to in their opinion, is a mistake. But neither is the Nasdaq in a bear market yet. Yes -51% hurts, but the trend line from pre-98 still says that 1825 is around the stress line for a bear. But then why did the Nasdaq hit 5K+: Speculation. When you consider the US markets are accessible to many other countries in the world, then you must also take into account their currencies. Consider the Euro. Had you invested in the Nasdaq early in 2000 then only recently have you actually started booking a loss on the investment. But moreover, where are the markets going in '01. If you look at the old Dow utilities, Transports… you'd say that in deed the Markets should climb… But then again, if you consider the Dow Industrials, that markets really aren't that bad. Looking closer, we see that the bank index ($BKX) is actually at a high of the year… Maybe that's what to consider. Financials often lead a market higher. But the main worry still sits there. If Greenspan doesn't lower soon, GDP will go negative. Yes, he is forcing a recession on USA… the yeilds on the 30 are telling you something. Rest assurred: "We are still in a bull market" In the coming new millennium you put your money down, and you take your chances. Happy New Year Hutch