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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SJS who wrote (15620)	12/29/2000 11:44:15 AM
From: pat mudge	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

What I posted is NOT a specific FO article, but there is an general infectious creeping slowdown that is permeating all aspects of enterprise and carrier infrastructure players. To me, it's relatively undeniable for at least 6-9 more months. LT, it's the correct place to be. I am sure, in a very constructive way, that we'll all take a good hard look at this after our favorite companies report in Q1. There will be a lot to listen very closely to. I believe the slowing economy is a fact. I also believe there will still be enormous growth in the fiber optics sector based on everything I've heard and read over the past year --- including during the downturn. My guys at Siemens say carriers have no choice. They have to upgrade or die. This is a fact. If money is tight they'll cut somewhere else but not in optical networking upgrades. Those companies/carriers without strong financing will either be bought out or file Chapter 11. Another fact of life in a paradigm shift of this magnitude. A lot of folks wanted to hop on the bandwagon and many if not most will fall off. Research reports continue to say bandwidth demand is doubling every 100 days. Someone will meet those demands. DSL estimates for next year are 5X this year, at least at the one semiconductor company I follow closely. For 2002 they're 3X 2001. That makes the upcoming year pretty exciting in terms of growth rate. The demise of the weak will hurt the strong but only in spurts as news reports make the most of any ripple, but in the end, the leaders will be stronger and the winnings bigger. Again, going back to Scott Kriens' comments at NGN. Of course I'm an optimist and you know as well as anyone where my biases are. My perspective is from 30,000 feet, not ground-level. And I'm patient. Pat

To: SJS who wrote (15620)	12/29/2000 1:14:44 PM
From: mariner	Respond to of 24042

Steve You wrote: "Sam's correct. What I posted is NOT a specific FO article, but there is an general infectious creeping slowdown that is permeating all aspects of enterprise and carrier infrastructure players. To me, it's relatively undeniable for at least 6-9 more months. LT, it's the correct place to be." I agree that the slowdown is likely spreading from carrier to enterprise to some extent. The big question is how much of a slowdown, and how far along are we. Traditionally, the market is thought to discount events out 6-9 months, which means we might already have priced in this slowdown, assuming we only "slow" and don't in fact slide into recession. That said, I agree that short term could see more downside, however I think its definitely limited in quality companies with such stellar long term prospects (ie. JDSU/SDLI). Seems to me that if the market has already discounted a significant slowdown, this may be the juncture to start re-positioning for the next uptick. The other $64 question is whether or not the early pre-announcements reflect industry wide slowing factors, or possibly the cream rising to the top and taking share from those not executing as well (ie. EXTR/FDRY). Best to all for the New Year and hopefully to a better 01 market wise. mariner