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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cory Gault who wrote (23525)	12/30/2000 11:09:44 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

cory: "I think making price predictions is ridiculous and that you have proven that theory in spades." I admit having made that $75 prediction and I admit that I never thought I'd see AMD under $40...I was wrong on both counts(and have paid handsomely as a result)...My analysis at that time was based upon AMD's fundamentals which were stronger then, than at any time in their history...Six months later AMD's fundamentals look even stronger from my perspective, so I remain exceedingly bullish about AMD's market price prospects given that Athy is now in its accelerating demand phase and given the very real possibility in Y2001 of AMD's successful penetration into the potentially highly profitable mobile, server and workstation sectors...Just got a feeling that the recent NY Times (?) article citing golf matches betwen Dell and AMD executives and AMD's continuing efforts to bag a corporate client will bear fruit before long...I am certainly buying at this level as I can rationalise $75 based upon AMD's fundamentals (i.e 25% revenue and eps growth in Y2001)...What I'm saying cory is that AMD's fundamentals, despite the gloomy overall environment, continue to strengthen, and AMD is stronger now than they were 6 months ago owing to the improved Duron infrastructure and owing to Dresden's continuing successful ramping and production output with 80% at 1 gig or better...Throw in, in Y2001, a successfully launched mobile product, a successfully launched palomino, inroads into the server space and the bagging of a few major corporations and all of a sudden, that $75 doesn't seem so ridiculous, at least from my perspective... But for a guy who thinks making price predictions is ridiculous, I could have sworn you did project AMD at $8... By the way, AMd closed at $14 in the aftermarket from what I can determine...The first week in January should tell us whether or not AMD has found its Y2001 low in the $14 range...$14 is awfully cheap for for a company that will post $2.50 in earnings and should improve by at least 25% on that in Y2001...Have you given any more thought to what INTC's Q4 eps will be and what INTC's Y2001 eps is likely to be??? Do you suppose that if AMD doubles INTC's eps in Y2001 that AMD will remain at half INTC's price???