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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Robert Douglas who wrote (2785)	12/29/2000 9:34:32 PM
From: Lee	Respond to of 3536

Robert, I have less confidence that a Fed rate cut at this point will avert a recession. Recent news includes:  lower 2001 revenue estimates for many large firms  a planned 10% reduction in automobile output  concerns of excess inventory The consumer status is:  personal savings has been negative for 6 months  stock wealth has been declining  job market weakening In the construction market:  housing starts are down for the year  recent home sales were positive  weakening office sector Government spending is growing. Globally I think Europe will strengthen short term while Japan is a problem. At this point I think a US consumer that is increasing savings it too much a drag to for the US economy to avert a recession. Regards, Lee