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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scott H. Davis who wrote (2424)	12/30/2000 12:34:06 AM
From: tuck	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Scott, Buying a cash rich company near a bottom is a hard way to go wrong if management and science are competitive. Certainly seems to limit downside. So I would add CEGE to your list, since you seem to have stomach for vaccine companies (as do I). But Rick's point >>returns are traditionally best in big-science companies that are almost broke<< is well taken. And where's the thread for that? T/FIF and its search for the 100 bagger? If there ain't one, there otter be. I noticed that some of the beaten up small caps I've been bottom fishing for myself and the Trickle Portfolio were inexplicably strong today: AGNT, GNSL, EBIO, CRIS, BDAL. No news to move any of them. Seems to me we're getting our January effect in January. Better work fast, Scott. Cheers, Tuck

To: Scott H. Davis who wrote (2424)	12/30/2000 1:33:33 PM
From: scaram(o)uche	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52153

Scott: Exactly. Those who bought into "underwriter and analyst dogma" at the height of biotech mania got killed. TD is correct..... weighted baskets will perform as he predicted. But, given the collective experience and insights of SI biotech, why spend time and effort studying dogma? "It's The Science Stupid" is always an easy answer for dogma. The secret to above-average success in biotech is described in the T/FIF threads. However, there was no role in biotech investing for such lessons over the past nine months...... it was largely an issue of riding market phenomena. GLGC, CRA, etc...... those were hard lessons learned, but they were predictable and predicted. The offerings were close to theft, IMO. Lots of cash, both CRA and GLGC are now price:book of under 2 and better than 85% off of their year's high. Happy New Year, all! Rick