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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (27738)	12/30/2000 12:40:57 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 65232

I was worried till I got to #5, Greg. Two down years in a row would begin to erode even my thick headed optimism <lol>. uf

To: Boplicity who wrote (27738)	12/30/2000 11:38:23 AM
From: altair19	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

Greg...first of all, Happy New Year to everyone. ....your #4. I agree for one reason. When AG lowers interest rates, it will take at least 3-4 before manufacturers will react buying new equipment, folks that need to buy money get their act together, etc. Right now, most of my clients are telling me that inventories are high and the pipe lines through channels are fairly full. This will take time to work itself out along the supply chain. Also, the larger tech plays like the Seibels, Q's etc that have always had strong business plans, patented technology and have strong leadership teams will weather the storm and prosper. Folks that are skilled traders (not me) will always do well. The folks that confused their trading prowess with a hot market over the past three years will have a tougher times. I have taken V's strategy and watch the houses carefully. Net of this....glad to be alive in these exciting times. Very best Altair19

To: Boplicity who wrote (27738)	12/30/2000 11:59:18 AM
From: RR	Respond to of 65232

Hi Greg: 2001 will be challenging but end a fine year. Think we'll need at least two quarters before things somewhat stabilize and let the Naz catch up with its longer term moving averages, but some stocks will emerge winners much quicker than that and be surprisingly rewarding. I'm going to continue to play the volatility churning option positions like I've done the past 8 weeks or so. Tighter stops. Cautious. Been rewarding although takes a lot more time to manage than my usual style. One thing that I've started doing the past week or so is taking a few positions in ITM options 6 months out, going back to my usual style. Hope you and yours have a prosperous 2001. RR

To: Boplicity who wrote (27738)	1/3/2001 10:08:03 AM
From: larry	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

In the first half of the year, Nasdaq will test 1800, which puts it around 30% down from the close of 2000. The market will surprise people by going down more also because there is too much bullishness among investors and analysts who believe that the worst is over, and begin to focus on 20% or more yearly return. We will see Nasdaq pushing 3000 later this year but we will finish the year around 2700-2800. The bubble is burst and it will take tens of years for Nasdaq to make new high, if ever. By counting investment gains toward bottom and top line growth will come back and haunt big firms (INTC, CSCO, MSFT etc). Seeing their stock options going to the toilet will force these companies to raise employee salary (ala LU giving employee a 10% pay raise in 2001), thus suppressing bottom line growth further. CSCO and MSFT will both go down to the 20s (or at least test) within the next two years. larry!