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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (65515)	12/30/2000 12:28:05 PM
From: High-Tech East	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

... climbing out on the limb again - way out ... I am just not smart enough to stop myself ... but you knew that already. <g> (1) The safe haven for those who have been selling tech stocks and not going to cash, bonds, treasuries etc is about to disappear. "They" think that they are safe over in the S&P 500, DJIA and the NYSE. (2) "They" are wrong. Profits are quickly declining in those areas also ... and P/Es are much too high. (3) There is too much fundamentally wrong with the U.S. and world economies right now for the 'old economy' stocks to escape as lightly as they have to date. (4) My predictions ... the S&P 500, DJIA and the NYSE Composite Index will all be at least 20% lower on February 1 , 2001 than they are today. (5) The Nasdaq Composite will be 5 to 10% lower on February 1, 2001 than it is today. (6) The Fed will not lower rates before the January 30-31 meeting. (7) Actually, there is about a 50% chance that the Fed will not cut rates until the March 20 meeting - unless the DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite drop another 30% from today during January. I may be totally wrong, but I am risking my large gains on my three S&P 500 March 'puts' by not selling them now ... at least you can't say that I don't put my money where my mouth is ... what a disgusting thought <g>. The rubber is about to meet the road ... and it's a large Michelin earthmover ... not one of those little Firestones they put (used to at least) on Ford Explorers. With those happy thoughts ... Happy New Year to all. Disclaimer: The above is my personal opinion. I recommend that you do not base your investment decisions solely on any one person's views or analysis (including mine). Do your own research and take personal responsibility for your investment decisions. Ken Wilson

To: Les H who wrote (65515)	12/30/2000 5:22:43 PM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

Sweet dreams are made of this, Who am I do disagree stls.frb.org

To: Les H who wrote (65515)	12/30/2000 6:31:22 PM
From: Ibexx	Respond to of 99985

Les, Re. Requiem for desktop Just to provide a balanced perspective: analysts have unanimously failed to address the fact that, now, the laptops and server markets have become the "sweet spots" of the computer industry - not the low-margin desktops, not any more. Thus the driving forces for computer industry is undergoing a profound change; whatever happens to the desktop market should not be extrapolated into the general health of the entire computer industry. With a weakened dollar (from rate cuts) and lowered oil prices in 2001, the revived economies of Europe and other developing nations could provide a big positive surprise. I am always happy to see financial press speaking in an extremely bleak tone in a downward market, as this invariably - and collectively - provides one of the best contrarian indicators for a market inversion. HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE! Ibexx