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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian@SI who wrote (41194)	12/30/2000 1:55:17 PM
From: Ian@SI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

PART 2. Aggregate Book-to-Bill of 1.12 Declines, as Expected, from October · November’s preliminary book-to-bill ratio was 1.12, an expected decline from the revised October level of 1.16. In our view, the decline is consistent with our flattish growth outlook and recently reported pushouts capital equipment companies, such as Novellus, are experiencing. · The three month average orders for North American based semiconductor capital equipment companies decreased 8% sequentially in November to $2.74 billion, after consecutive increases throughout the year. Meanwhile, three month average shipments in November fell 5% to $2.44 billion. · We believe that the book-to-bill is likely to gravitate closer to parity as shipments catch up to bookings, which we anticipate to grow at a slower rate. Front End Bookings Declined 8% · Three month average orders for the front end segment dropped 8% sequentially in November to $2.28 billion. Three month average shipments of $1.84 billion in November decreased 5% over the prior month. As a result, the book-to-bill ratio of 1.24 for the front end in November declined from 1.28 (revised) in October. · Given the flattish outlook we are projecting, particularly in the near term, we anticipate December bookings to come closer to parity. However, we believe the front end industry growth will be increasingly driven by adoption of advanced technologies, such as the copper module and low-k dielectrics, as well as the transition to 300mm wafers. Back End Bookings Decline Continue due to Overcapacity in Packaging Houses · As expected, back end three month average bookings continue to trend downward in November, falling 11% sequentially to $457.6 million. The three month average shipments in November also continued to decline sequentially by 6% to $599.2 million. Accordingly, the November book-to-bill ratio for the test and assembly market declined to 0.76 from 0.81 (revised) in the prior month. · In our view, back end equipment is likely to remain in a digestive period after the tremendous capacity buildup in the earlier part of the year, particularly by the Asian test houses.