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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Steven Finkel who wrote (44406)	12/31/2000 11:32:34 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57584

Steven, thanks, you have a great year, too! You say that I "allowed" the unwelcomed guest . . . aka/Softechie{SI} aka/Me_Xman [Raging Bull] [who knows how many other identities on RB & Yahoo?] . . . . to return and waste everyone's time. It is more accurate to say that he never left. He only vanishes when his trades aren't working out. Then when the market turns his favor he returns to gloat. This immature action is consistent with his young age. . . . .which we uncovered last week. Most here estimate his age to be in the mid-teens. I wonder. . . .what are the chances that this person is actually the notorious pump & dumper, Jonathan Lebed? ? ? . . . now about 16 or 17 years old. On that investigative TV news interview, didn't Lebed say he was returning to the boards on SI, etc. to do more of the same thing that the SEC fined him a half-million dollars for?. . .and dominating boards and hyping his own plays throughout the net was Lebed's MO. We've seen hundreds of pumps of GENU, AVN, Conseco, etc. . .just before he turned into a short-selling basher. HMMmm. . . . ?? I don't know. What do you guys think? Anyway, the HOME thread is not a moderated board on SI. So there is nothing that can be done. EXTREMELY soon, we'll be posting on our new HOME board on a website where leaders will regularly move posts to where they are more appropriate, and have full autonomy. . . .away from all lurkers and away from the prying eyes of financial professionals. . . .the first of the boards are actually online in beta as I type. Your questions. . . 1. Fibercore? That's easy. I agree that it is an undiscovered sleeper. . . and is undervalued relative to Corning or other fibre makers. 2. 2000 was hard on all portfolios, as you can imagine. Tech Fund Managers had to get quite creative to show gains in 2000, a year which saw the Nasdaq Composite fall nearly 40%. With that in mind, the untraded hypothetical portfolios we created for the purpose of understanding how the various groups were performing against other such groups. . . did as well as could be expected. Another thing that must be kept in mind is that we on the HOME thread ALWAYS sell out of tech stocks in the Spring. That has been stated many times here. So in evaluating what is "long-term", it must be considered that we sold the first week of March and did not begin to buy these names back until October 13th and again in early December. No person would have realistically held any of the portfolios made in January right through the tech selloff in the Spring. . . especially when I warned back in April that such techs would dump between 60% and 80%!! The Untraded Bull Port, which was a composite of value and growth stocks across many sectors, but heavily weighted with tech. . . when held long throughout the year 2000 [ignoring the Spring warning/selloff]. It beat the Nasdaq Composite by 5%. $229,785 hypothetically placed into this group of stocks to watch would have ended the year at $151,751. . . down 34% on the year. siliconinvestor.com NOTE: There were also some spinoffs that were not calculated into these ports. I don't have the time to do the research. But for instance, LU spunoff AV and distributed shares to holders of LU. T spunoff AWE and distributed shares to holders of T. Etc. . etc. . . The Phoenix Board that I have is pretty much UNCH since it was made in mid-October. But there are about a half dozen version of this portfolio, so be sure you compare apples with apples. siliconinvestor.com My Untraded "Aggressive 10" beat the Nasdaq Composite by about 6% on the year. . .showing -33%. siliconinvestor.com By comparison. . . Ex-Hedge Fund Manager, James Cramer's Top 10 for 2000 was down 70%: siliconinvestor.com . . and Ex-Fund Manager & "Tech Guru" Steve Harmon's Top Picks for 2000 were down 72% for the year: siliconinvestor.com The Untraded Broadband hypothetical port was rather odd, in that it ranged from losers like Covad down 95% on the year to winners like CIEN up 182% on the year. Go figure. It ended the year just slightly off the Nasdaq Composite. . .at -42% siliconinvestor.com The December Aggressive port is not yet a month old. It has tracked the Nasdaq fairly well during the declines of December. . .and is currently down 10%. siliconinvestor.com The Summer Alternative Untraded was designed for those demanding to stay in tech stocks over the summer. . .and included many hedges. And at the end of summer, this port would have expired with a respectable return. It isn't usable beyond its intended term, But for the sake of argument, if it were held throughout the rest of the year, when compared to the Nasdaq, it outperformed the Nasdaq by +11%. siliconinvestor.com Likewise, the place we ran for the summer, REITS, are still up. . .18%. siliconinvestor.com And this group is full of high-yield dividends which are not calculated into the total. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that the actual return including dividends would be in the neighborhood of 32% since its creation. Our Hi-Tech Long untraded after 2 years is still showing a gain of 129%. . . with winners like VRSN up 1900% and EXDS up 896%. . .and losers like TFSM down 98 % over 2 years. . .and the biggest point loser A.T. & T. down 49% over 2 years. 3. I hope to give some lists at some point, [though I am very busy with programming today]. But I stopped being the keeper of the Hypothetical Portfolios several months back. I went on the record back in March of 2000 saying that the entire "Buy and Hold" strategy was no longer working. I have maintained that view throughout the year. NOTE: I make "long" hypothetical ports for educational use. . .for reasons of comparison. . . . For instance, in 99, we learned that ports that were left untraded tended to do better than those that were traded, whereas in 2000, we learned that just the opposite was true. All in all, I am satisfied with the port study. In my opinion, it revealed much and helped us to enhance gains in 99 and limit risks in 00. Steven, I hope that helps you. . . Happy Last Day of the Milenia. Rande Is