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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JagBrad who wrote (83110)	12/30/2000 4:17:41 PM
From: Razorbak	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Brad, Re: Upside & Downside Thanks for the response. One thing about oil's they go up and they go down. ... I do believe we are at the end of the 2nd stage of a bear market and I am hording my cash for the sale prices of a life time. ... We have to have buyers to have a rising market. Exactly my point. There are opportunities on both the upside and the downside, yet you act like the only opportunities that you can take advantage of are either on the long side or in cash. On the one hand, you acknowledge the current "mo mo" mojo on the natural gas side, yet you think you came to the party too late to enjoy yourself. On the other hand, you sound rather bearish, and you acknowledge the significant downside potential, yet you aren't shorting or buying puts. Why don't you go long bonds, or precious metals, or puts on NG players? Why not take advantage of moves in both directions, both up and down? Perhaps you don't like to play the downside. Why not train yourself to switch hit? Just because you're a natural right-hander, doesn't mean that you can't get a hit swinging left-handed. Sometimes when the opposing team puts a lefty on the mound, you gotta change tactics. The fact is that there is a party going on. I say set up a cash bar and start selling mixed drinks! There's lots of money to be made in the middle of a rip-roaring party. Or simply stand at the door, collect car keys, and arrange for taxis. Eventually, a bunch of drunk attendees are going to be stumbling towards you needing a safe ride home. You'll be amazed at the tips you can get from people who can barely open their wallets and have to ask you for help. ;-) And if you're really a risk-taker, just lurk outside, pop Greenspan over the head with a lead pipe, and run off with the punch bowl yourself! <gg> Rumor has it that there's serious money to be made that way, but it's not exactly... umm... a risk-free endeavor. LOL! Anyway, my point is, there's a party going on, so don't just sit there on the couch, looking at your watch, and acting like a wallflower! Get out there, have some fun, and make a little money in the meantime. Just be a little creative, and show some entrepreneurial spirit. =) Good luck, whatever you choose to do, and best regards, Razor PS - Respectfully offered in the holiday spirit of the impending New Year.

To: JagBrad who wrote (83110)	12/30/2000 5:57:43 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Brad R: great commentary; now we're cooking... (with gas of course (VBG)~ per your comments of: <My Short term: Oil & Gas up then Oil & gas down. Gold & Silver down then Up Up Up ( I think) Financials are going to make a brief pop and then time to short big time.>> ... pretty much in full agreement; other than I anticipate a double bottom re-test of the XAU; but no new lows off the highly probable Fed Cuts in Jan - as the momenteum money exits the XAU; but then the pop as reality sets in - ie: Rate Cuts lead to a weaker US Dollar & the POG will trade inversely to the US Dollars weakness. I also think that credit quality issues are a cancer all through the financials... from corporate paper to frontline consumer credit. The reckless credit expansion of Rubin & Greenspan will come home to roost and if we see a fall in Real Estate Prices - Seidman allready cited a doubling of then number of potential bank failures as we saw in the prior S&L Crisis. The downside wildcard however; is the unprecedented explosion in derivative exposure. Per your comments on me "being a bit early" - I may be early in my exit; but not on my strategy, or positioning imho. I haven't bought puts, or sold anything short in Nat Gas "yet"...but I'm "fighting it"... Allmost did & still may next week; but - for a short-term, quick downside 15-20%ish pop on a few of the mo-mo breakout stocks like BRR & TMBR that imho were the beneficiary of a little portfolio front running/window dressing/marking up etc... There will be lots of E&P investors & Institutional investors alike, who can as of tuesday; take profits off of this Oilpatch run on a much more favorable tax basis and I think we'll see profit taking into this record Q4 earnings reporting. - that may give a nice little downside/short trading opp on some of that tax oriented - delayed profit taking. I haven't said short Nat Gas "now" as a macro move - rather "soon, very soon"...short Nat Gas as a macro move... and what a macro move it will be imo... EOG at $15,TMBR at $12, FST at $15 or BRR at $20 were compelling values as we look forward & saw the fundametnals of Nat Gas improving... but; with the next upside move in the E&P's that should bring us $65-70 EOG & BRR , or $40-45 TMBR etc... is there any doubt than within 9-18 mos we are not going to see $30 EOG & BRR, or $20ish TMBR somewhere along the line shortly down the road ? - those are 50% short side trades - to still historically positive shareprice levels & valuations for those companies in "stable" commodity price environments. I think we'll have one more upside blow off move - potentially off of a complete "melt-down" event in California; or timingwise - preferably off of and/or into the record setting Q4 earnings reporting - and maybe even getting lucky to meet yet another Winter Weather event headlong into that reporting. - "THAT" is when I think it just may be time to make a "macro" call on shorting Nat Gas; nearly across the board and we aren't more than days, weeks, or Q1 reporting away from the peak of the E&P cycle here imho & we may even be seeing it right here & now... so the wait - won't be a long one and imho; this concept & thought process won't be missed by the Street. In the Nat Gas plays; sooner than most imagine - there is an awfully big crowd that will be trying to carry a whole lotta money thru a very, very narrow exit door. ... and I'll be there; loaded with both barrels on the downside - bank on it (VBG). Another factor I see on the horizon is that the Street is creating a potential valuation box down the road for some of these NG mo-mo leaders. Given the $6-$9 Nat Gas & $28-$35 Crude Oil price realizations of Q4/Q1; as some of the mo-mo leaders are now arriving into the historic valuation ceiling cap of 10-12 x cfps; the Street would have to expand valuation multiples to 12-15-18ish x cfps come Q3/Q4 2001 merely to maintain shareprices should we see $22-$25 Oil and $4-$5 Nat Gas in comparison to the prices we just saw in Q4. And I think that given the slowing US Economy, the substantially increased drilling & rig counts that we'll be seeing in 1H 2001 vs 1H 2000; that Nat Gas may very quickly decline to $4.25-$5.25ish for 2H 2001 along with Crude Oil perhaps basing in that $22-$25 range and if they do - the Street sure as hell "AINT" taking the E&P's to 15-18 x cfps - bank on that as well...if they do; Oil & Gas say hello to dot.com Deja Vu all over again ~ The effects of a slowing US Economy on commodity prices is vastly being underestimated here - as is the momenteum component to the futures markets. Once commodity prices rollover they certainly seem to over-shoot past fundamentals in both directions imo. Sentiment is also way too high and this thread is a very good barometer. Once we see "stories" featued on the cover of Barrons & become the topic du jour; at the very, very least - the "peak" appearing on the horizon is not far away. I also do acknowledge that due to the obvious glaring lack of supply in the Nat Gas market; that historically high prices will be fundamentally supported for another 9-18 mos perhaps. But, not double, or triple the prior 3-5 year moving avg price for Nat Gas ... NOT into a slowing US economy, alternative fuel switching, emergency conservation efforts,potential govenmental intervention and very importantly; into exponentially higher drilling activity than we saw in 1999 & 2000. I wouldn't rule out $4.25-$5.25 NG for 2001 & maybe even the mid $3's into early 2002; but that $2.25-$2.60 range will arrive once again and perhaps sooner than anyone imagines... The question is when will the Street refuse to maintain, or assign the upside historic valuation multiples to the sector ... and imho; once Nat Gas prices start declining - it won't be nearly as important that we may be falling to still historically high price levels; as it will be that we are indeed falling & that these companies will be facing negative sequential quarters & year over year comps very soon... I can't imagine this sector setting new highs into that reality. *** Q2 2001 imho; will see the cycle peak in Independant domestic E&P earnings reporting *** So the $64 question that every E&P investor has to ask themselves is; how much longer will the Street continue to take this sector to new highs - given that reality... and given that - that "reality" is only about 6 mos away folks... ? Brad your other point is something else I agree with and alluded to earlier... that factor is what I call "Sept 1999 Deja Vu all over again" ~ Being, that in Sept '99 the E&P sector collapsed & got sold off right into ramping Nat Gas Prices & excellent earnings reporting that substantially exceed analysts expectations across the board sectorwide. The E&P subsector was cashed in as "currency" and given the Fed Cuts that should arrive in 1H 2001; the E&P's are once again poised as "currency generators" for a rotation right back into tech - as we were just the recepients of "hot momenteum money" here and that "hot momenteum money" is going right back to tech off the the first Fed Cut & most assuredly if it's a .50 bp cut. One of the primary reasons I took profits of late & have chosen not to participate in what I expected to be a final upside blow off top to the E&P's; is I think there is more than ample potential "Crisis Events" looming in this market environment...perhaps the mother of all buying opps ? ... and given the recent OSX blow off to intra-day lows of OSX 94... I think I'll recognize "rollover", and/or a blow off top easier than I will a "no-brainer" pullback buying opp in the E&P's given that peak earnings will occur of of the coming Q4, or Q1 reporting quarter and I still see that as being the next "Big & Easy Money" trade in the Oilpatch - on the downside in the Nat Gas pureplay E&P's and it will be much, much sooner than 95% of threadsters here expect... This is literally the "Too Perfect" E&P Storm here.... An unprecedented confluence of positive events... - Coldest/harshest winter in decades - directly into - lowest fundamental Nat Gas supply levels in decades - right into the exodus of all that speculative capital outflow from Tech stocks - with the California deregulation crisis adding fuel to the fire - creating headline & lead/cover story media coverage -peaking sector investor sentiment - alltime high combined Oil & Gas commodity prices - creating... -alltime high earnings reporting; if not Q4, then probably Q1 ... if that "Perfect Storm" convergence of positive fundamentals, market events, seasonality, weather, media coverage & Investor sentiment isn't a no-brainer profit taking & soon to be a short selling opp; there will ever be one ... and I gotta do what I do best - the two things that have continually allowed me to make the "Big & Easy" high reward/low-moderate risk money in this cycle... "Beat the Crowd to the Party" "Be a Pig that gets Fat & Not a Hog that gets Slaughtered" ... ie: Cash out perhaps a bit early & get in on the next play - perhaps a bit early; but above all - never, never being late to the party in either direction. Pigs are early & Hogs are late... and no one ever went broke by taking Large Profits too early (as oppossed to staying "Max Margined" into an Oct 1997, June 1998, or Sept '99 Deja Vu all over again ~ rollover. And once again; those that keep focusing on & looking to be able to see the "bottom" of the cycle before they cash in, or exit - will get decimated in Sept '99, Oct '97, or June '98 fashion. As it's not the "bottom" of the cycle coming into focus that the Street will be focusing on & exiting upon; it's the "peak"... ... and it's tic toc' time right here & now for the Nat Gas E&P's - so keep those eye's on the horizon; as the "peak" is coming (if it's not here allready) & coming sooner than most think. Start identifying some late-cycle rotation plays & have a profit taking/exit strategy to the E&P play if you haven't started allready.