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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 100cfm who wrote (37225)	12/30/2000 5:21:44 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

100, << AWS will begin a GPRS buildout at roughly the sametime as Verizon/SPRINT will be building out their 1X systems. That is 9.6k vs 144k. It doesn't get any stupider then that. Something isn't making any sense. >> It is NOT 9.6k vs 144k. AWS PocketNet (CDPD) is currently at 19.2 kbps (nominally which meand maybe ... and where available). Hard to say what typical average user throughput of GPRS will be when AWS launches GPRS on any scale, but you can probably expect speeds comporable to a V.90 modem, and that is WITHOUT data compression and data optimization. It is not multimedia class but when they launch there won't be oodles of multimedia stuff available. 144k is PEAK data rate for 1xMC pgase 0. I have no idea what typical average user throughput at full mobility will be. As for my (the weighted forecasts from research analysts) predictions for 2007 (which funkified your holidays) ... that is for CDMA becoming the predominant wireless air interface (i.e. greater than 50% of all subs/devices). CDMA is about 12% today. Assuming that W-CDMA starts gathering steam by late 2003 (my assumption based on what I can glean, and with fingers crossed that it gets off the ground cleanly), that means consistent growth through the end of the decade. BTW: Strategis (pretty conservative in their forecasts compared to let's say Cahners InStat) projects 1,000,000 3G subs by 2010 and I think they are looking at ONLY IMT-2000 3G spectrum, not existing 2G spectrum where CDMA is already instlled and will grow. - Eric -