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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 100cfm who wrote (37241)	12/30/2000 8:40:41 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

'cause I sorta feel that we've gotten blindsided .... I couldn't put my finger on it but you did, that is exactly what I feel has happened. I guess we've been paying attention to different information then... Personally, I have had no surprise from QCOM. All along it seems that it has been clear that nothing was clear, that there was a complex path ahead consisting of an overabundance of competing standards mixed with different starting points and company and national personalities and, thus, nothing was certain in the short term except that we would continue to be assaulted by FUD as all the players tried to position themselves and make excuses and feints. What was and is certain is that all paths lead to CDMA and QCOM owns CDMA so eventually the piper will have to be paid. I think this was true last fall and it is true this winter ... there have been some shifts, all the substantive ones seeming to be toward the inevitable, but enough noise that it is hardly surprising that most people are confused. And, what happens to a stock about which people are confused in a market downturn? So where's the surprise? Where's the blindside? This is a long term strategy folks and QCOM is our pet exactly because it represents on of the purer cases where it seems clear that there are no other options *eventually*. This does NOT mean consistent week over week gains.

To: 100cfm who wrote (37241)	12/31/2000 11:46:09 AM
From: slacker711	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Sales to DOCOMO in 02?? I don't see any planned 02 rollouts for WCDMA by anybody else, I could be wrong on this, I hope so. So no real ramp until WCDMA rollouts in 03. There are probably AT LEAST a dozen networks that have been contracted for deployment either prior to or during 2002. Japan Telecom, Telefonica, Portugal Telecom, Deutche Telecom,....there are a bunch of others. If you are looking for an upside to the current estimates....I think this is where you will find it. The deployment of these networks could provide an extra $100m in infrastructucture royalties and an extra $300m in '02. The handset royalties would likely be larger. I havent seen any analyst estimates which include any W-CDMA royalties for next year.... Slacker