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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 100cfm who wrote (5823)	12/30/2000 9:47:51 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 196540

100, << I thought Cingular was one of the two Seybold was predicting would go 1X >> Not exactly. That was the fabulous Lynette Luna who finally got one right when she was the first to flat out state (not predict) the AWS move. Lynette's rumors got picked up and quoted by Tim Luke et al. Gilder's been doing the AWS to CDMA thing since BC. Andrew Seybold predicted the possibilitty (not certainty) of AWS moving to GSM early on. Here is what Andrew Seybold said re Cingular: >> The Wireless Roadmap: A Fork In The Road October 2000 outlook.com <snip> Cingular Wireless Cingular Wireless would also have to change technologies. It could not remain as the only TDMA carrier in the U.S. Handset vendors wouldn’t be interested in building new handsets for a single network, and Cingular would be the only U.S. service operator without data capabilities. So where would Cingular go? This is an unknown, although the following scenario would certainly work. Cingular already has two of its coverage areas built out as GSM - all of California, and the Carolinas. Cingular also has a coverage hole on the east coast. Cingular could switch to GSM, and purchase VoiceStream if DT decides to dump the deal. This would be an interesting move because Cingular and AT&T would have the same technology once again, and it would provide service into the remainder of the east coast areas. It would also give Cingular packet-data capability. <snip> The number of GSM users would exceed the number of CDMA users by a few million, and handset and PDA vendors would be more inclined to build GSM capability into their next-generation handsets and PDA's since a single platform could be used to provide devices in the U.S., all of Europe, and parts of Asia. Qualcomm Meanwhile, Wall Street would see all of these changes as having a negative impact on Qualcomm’s business model and Qualcomm’s stock would take a hit. AT&T would probably enjoy an upsurge in its stock price. A better migration path would be for Cingular to move directly to CDMA instead of GSM, but Cingular faces the same political issues as AT&T Wireless. A move to CDMA would be seen as an admission that the technologists at SBC and BellSouth had somehow made the wrong choice. Even so, Cingular should move to CDMA for the following reasons: * Cingular could move to higher-speed data using its existing spectrum and not have to spend $billions at auction for new spectrum. * This move would result in more CDMA users than GSM users in the U.S. Devices would be developed for the GSM and CDMA platforms at the same time. If Cingular were to move to GSM, GSM devices would come first, followed by CDMA devices. * The CDMA community recently announced that it would be building handsets with both cdmaOne and WCDMA capabilities. These handsets would permit almost universal roaming on a worldwide basis as 3G systems are deployed. * Cingular would be able to serve more customers on the same spectrum because CDMA is more spectrum-efficient than GSM or TDMA. *The Fun Begins* It will be interesting to see how this all shakes out. The implications we have presented above are significant. As always, the final decisions will not necessarily be based on a technological assessment, but rather on internal politics and the anticipated effects on stock prices. Technologists don’t want to be branded as having made a mistake in their choice of technology, and they will try to minimize this perception. Their management teams, also averse to admitting a mistake, will most likely opt for the best political decision over the best technology decision. Qualcomm’s stock would take a hit for a few months, but hopefully Wall Street would come to understand that the 3G end game is CDMA. The folks at Qualcomm will still be smiling. They might miss out on royalty revenue in the short term, but Qualcomm will emerge a winner. If AT&T and Cingular both opt for GSM, the good news for the consumer is that we will have gone from four to three digital technologies being used in the U.S. Handset prices would drop, as would voice service prices. All U.S. networks would be capable of delivering data, and this would benefit all of the companies involved in delivering the "Wireless Internet" to users. All in all, AT&T’s anticipated shift in technologies would have a long-term positive impact on all of the wireless service operators, device vendors, and information suppliers. End users would have more products than ever before, at lower prices. << - Eric -