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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 100cfm who wrote (37248)	12/30/2000 10:20:55 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

100, << Eric you are most likely right about the typo. When I read it I thought it was ridiculous >> Maybe not. Rethinking my previous response to you. Here is a quote from the pretty credible (not perfect) Andrew Seybold. Nobody is 100% credible. Even Uncle. Even No Mobile Merlin. "GSM offers several advantages in that it would enable AT&T to deploy GPRS packet-data services at speeds of between 9.6 and 38.8 Kbps. It would also mean that AT&T would use the same technology used by all of Europe and most of Asia. This would facilitate a deal between BT and AT&T Wireless." 9.6 kbps is of course GSM speed for circuit switched data (CSD). GPRS is backwards compatable with GSM CSD. 1900 MHz GPRS handsets do not yet exist. Cingular and Voicestream are waiting for them. AWS may deploy GSM handsets initially. << Mike all 3G roads lead to Q, But that is way off in the future. I'm concerned that with the way current events are unfolding is Q once again way overvalued even at this level! >> Say GAP. Say CAP. Say Main Street. Say Gorilla. Say GAP. Say CAP. Say Main Street. Say Gorilla. Say GAP. Say CAP. Say Main Street. Say Gorilla. - Eric -

To: 100cfm who wrote (37248)	12/31/2000 1:54:25 PM
From: limtex	Respond to of 54805

100 cfm - copy of my post to Eric L on the TMQT Happy New Year to you. :-Eric L, With all the scepticism in Wall St today. No serious analyst gave any credence to Cingular or AWE changing to CDMA. China is a different matter but even then there is aready built in scepticism about China not becuase of the Q but because China is notoriously difficult. An article describing what everyone in the business arleady knows isn't going to affect Q. No serious analyst expected anything else other than the only CDMA main players in the US would be Verizon and PCS. There was the article by the Tech head of AWS a couple of months ago slagging off the Q and all it stood for. Cingular has been showing its GSM developments at exhibitions and shows. No-one in the industry thought that Cingular could possibly change to CDMA with it already large GSM investment. No-one serious believed that. So why the fuss caused by the article? There is considerable FUD now being created and disseminated about Qs royalty rights from WCDMA. To believe that Q isn't going to receive its full royalties from every w-cdma deployment and handset you first have to believe the following:- 1. That all the license agreements that Q has signed for WCDMA are all not going to be valid and or royalty bearing. 2. That the patent decisions in Korea, Japan and now in Europe are in some meaningful way irrelevant to the ability of Q to enforce royalties in WCDMA. 3. Irwin Jacobs is totally wrong and doesn't have the faintest idea what he is talking about when he says repeatedly and at almost every conference call and in many many articles and interviews that Q will collect full royalites on every wcdma installation and handest. 4. That Irwin Jacobs is being disengenuous when he firstly congratulated AWS on their choice of W-CDMA and secondly when he said earlier this year that his nightmare was that there might be a delay or problem with W-CDMA deployments. ( I forget his exact phraseology, someone pls post the actual quote). 5. That Qs race to develop a functional W-CDMA chip is disengenuous. Qs value by the Street is predicated on its ownership of and development of a massive portfolio of royalty bearing patents allowing it to be the gatekeeper for entry to the CDMA world of wireless 3G. In a couple of years every major wireless SP on this planet will have a wireless 3G system and that system will be cdma. The flavor is transparent to Qs right to reveive royalties on it. As far as EDGE goes, the tech director of T said a couple of months ago that they would deploy it and there is no reason to disbelieve this man. They have also said they are going W-CDMA and they are an SP and don't have to pay royalties to the Q, their suppliers do. So far as I know the only company capable of manufacturing a WCDMA system that has not so far signed a license for speciafically that (so far as we know) is NOK. They expect to sell in Japan and soon. We are also this year going to see full competition between a 1X system and GPRS, EDGE etc in the US. The massively high roaming charges for members of the GSM cartel will help those SPs bottom lines. But they are going to have to be that big to offset the huge costs of system deployment that their GSM/GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA decision involves. But the bottom line is going to be fierce competition between the two surviving systems and if you believe IJ then Q wins whatever happens. That then brings us down to the only reason we are all here and that is the Q valuation. Wall St didn't give Q the value it has because of an extremely unlikely Cingular move to CDMA. Nor because of its current growth rate which is confused by Qs sales of various major divisions. It gives it its current value becuase of its current and growing patent position and the royalties that will flow from that for years ahead. Every month that goes by we get closer to more and more royalty bearing product bein sold across the World. This may well be a transition year but a transition to a royalty position that is probably enequaled in commerical history. Best regards, L