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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (39682)	12/30/2000 11:38:44 PM
From: Jack T. Pearson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

I agree about the coming price wars in PCs. When sales of PCs dropped off unexpectedly before Christmas, it left a lot of the PC companies with too much inventory in the channels. Remember when Compaq stuffed their channels with inventory a couple of years ago? It killed their profits and the stock price for more than a year. Also, Intel is planning to push the Pentium 4 hard this year. If the PC vendors don't get rid of the Pentium 3 inventory soon, they won't be able to give it away. The PC companies with the most inventory in their distribution channels are likely to be hurt pretty badly. I expect Dell and Gateway to suffer the least, since their business model allows them to keep their inventory low.

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (39682)	12/31/2000 2:51:57 AM
From: donald sew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 42787

Jim, Per the chart you mentioned: quote.yahoo.com^SOXX&d=mym&y=on Firstly, the following is not statistically viable, regardless I believe there is still some merit. Those MAIN CYCLES in the SOX are approximately 2 years in length. After each of the 3 peaks there was a strong selloff. After the strong selloffs there was a FIBONACCI retracement, before the final leg down. With the current cycle, I am suspecting that the FIB rebound is about to start. So in those main cycles of the SOX there are basicly 2 bottoms, where the 2nd bottom is lower than the 1st. Its also interesting to note that in the 2 previous cases the SOX led the NAZ downward into the 2nd bottom, which became the base/bottom for the next bull run in both the SOX and NAZ. In the 2 previous cases, the timeframe between BOTTOM 1 and BOTTOM 2 of the SOX cycle took approximately 6-9 months. If the SOX was to repeat that pattern, assuming now is BOTTOM 1, then BOTTOM 2 should arrive around JUNE-SEPT. There has been a bit of discussion about the 3 phases of a bear market(NAZ), and some are saying that PHASE 2 is in the process of being completed. That 2nd LEG DOWN into BOTTOM 2 of the SOX CYCLE may be the trigger for PHASE 3 of the NAZ BEAR MARKET. Jim, I guess I could say that Im now playing for the FIBONACCI REBOUND off of BOTTOM 1 of the SOX CYCLE. If I get this one right, Im going to treat myself to a whole lot of dumplings. gggggggggg Happy New Year