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Pastimes : 2001 Stock Market Predictions -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RockyBalboa who wrote (28)	12/31/2000 2:10:32 PM
From: SirRealist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 75

Now that I've had time to consider.... --it has rarely proven beneficial guessing the mkt's course more than a week in advance, though occasionally, a longer term prediction has saved my derriere. --The Dow: 8250 low, or 7000 low. The high we'll know Tuesday.... looks like a triple top formed Friday. --The NASDy: 2225, 1825 lows.... most likely 1825. The top: 3050. ************************************************* Probable events.... First off, every prediction goes out the window if Uncle Algae kicks the bucket. The others can't manage it near as well without him. January: Initial signs suggest NASDy will level off like it did in June, but weakness will be clear this first week. Opticals will be especially tough in January, as the JDSU downgrade and several unlocks provide pressure till about 1/19 (coincidentally, the day before inauguration). Earnings the 3rd week will be acceptable but not spectacular enough to provide lift. Will still see some wicked quick rebounds and reversals, due to pending FOMC rate move in early Feb. Wild card: sfgate.com February: Selling on the news of a rate cut(1/30-31), NASDy will dip again. Between Bush's Justice Dept. sending clear signals of dealmaking with MSFT and others, and comments from Feddies, Feb will rebound fine.... till that Calif. utility crisis hits harder... and don't expect the Federales to bail out Demo Guv Davis till he suffers some political damage. Indeed, alt energy stocks are likely to be in play all winter: CPST FCEL ACPW MCEL BLDP SATC and more... Bush's tax cut will seem a done deal before the month is out, but it will ultimately benefit the Dow more than NASDy. March/April: Another rally begins on NASDy, in anticipation of another 1/4 pt rate cut from FOMC (3/20). Another dip follows the final week of March and 2nd week of April, though nothing as dramatic as the previous April. Expect a watered down Bush tax cut to get through Congress in this period. May: NASDy's low is likely to be reached in May, if not January or October. Odds are about even for each of these 3 months. And when the Fed does not cut rates here, it'll sour the closing days of May. Once again, oil & alt energy stocks will be playable as gas prices rise in advance of Memorial Day. June-August: June and half of July are okay, as FOMC coughs up its 3rd and final rate cut of the year 6/26-27. But August will be flat. Sept-Oct: An early rise in Sept, will go away in a 9/15-10/15 tumble. Nov-Dec: Fairly flat, but profits available, if you're in the right companies. ******************************** Other key predictions: Alt energy, storage and satellites will do well in the first few months. Steve Case & Rupert Murdoch will continue their quests to be internet content kings. Smaller, regional telecoms, CLECs and telephony players will be principal candidates for M&As.... or bankruptcies. The best managed bios will hold their own, but a whole lot'll be shaking out this year. Technology winners: fuel-efficient vehicles, anti-pollution biotechs, anti-cancer/AIDS biotechs, mini-PCs (briefcase-sized laptops with 16"-18" flat screens and wireless broadband access; likely led by DELL) and a corollary: most non-financial apps stored online. Non-technology winners: health care (as baby boomers near retirement), insurance companies, pharmaceuticals. NewSpeak terms: In: Euro-dullards, lightware; floptics, kinetic memory, bizzybotties. Out: Streaming media, dotbombs. Big things to worry about: China/N. Korea net-tampering, consolidation of net content squeezing out the independents, more book-cooking to be uncovered. Intriguing companies for rebound/acquisition... and for sheer greatness: TSTN CTLM ISLD IRSN NAVI ICGE PACW SCII IDCC GWRX BKHM and TMTA EPNY PXLW MRVL SCMR AVNX NUFO STOR MDCO BLUE ACPW CPST. ************************** Guru? Hardly. Just a watcher & guesser. Best guess is to weight tech at 50% of the portfolio this year, to cut losses faster and to pay close attention to world mkts.