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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: jmootx who wrote (65526)12/31/2000 4:44:44 AM
From: ru2  Respond to of 99985
 
I'm long VSH, and also a small position in EMA. If I short anything tuesday it will be a swing trade. Until things become a little clearer I'll be quick to take profit and run. I am thinking we get some kind of rally in January, but a painful move down first would'nt surprise me.

Ru2



To: jmootx who wrote (65526)12/31/2000 6:53:12 AM
From: craig crawford  Respond to of 99985
 
Thanks for your historical perspective.



To: jmootx who wrote (65526)12/31/2000 2:07:05 PM
From: Gary Burton  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 99985
 
jmootx--I am also anticipating a stong rally - to at least test 2700 on COMP, and may well be higher--all that is missing in here is that, as I said before, the SOX has to print a new low sub 517 first to complete its downtrend. The SOX is the key tell for the Naz--right now at 577 it is in the process of rolling over again into (d)down of a triangle, leading very shortly to the last little leg down to about 485ish, as I see it. At that point, I think everything will be alligned to have a sharp and more enduring Rally in the semis and semiequips. That will power the NDX etc.....Also, a number of the individual tech stocks look to be close to completing their ultimate wave count Lows, so that when that occurs in enough of them, there may well be an explosive move up.....For eg. MSFT at 35-38 could well be its final Low, LSI anywhere between 14.5-16.25 same thing, INTC mid-higher 20's etc etc. My point here is that many of the semi stocks are very late in their ultimate declines from the top and that once they turn, the Naz may well reverse its spots As the SOX goes, so goes the NDX by and large.

Another thing to keep in the back of one's mind for elliott types is that it is more likely that the Mar-May drop was an ABC rather than a 5 wave impulse. The implication of this is that from the 4260 mark on the COMP on Sept1 (to line up with the NDX), all that is needed to complete the entire Bear Mkt from the March peak is another ABC--We could easily have seen that with the A part dropping to 2500ish, the B part rally to 3025ish and then the whoosh down to 2288 for the C... That is ONE count that also fits well with the symmetry of the declines using parallel lines on a log chart.

Bottom line--watch the SOX, not the COMP or the NDX. Once SOX drops below its current low of 517 it is likely in its final move down (best guess about 485ish) and THAT will likely line up with many of its components also reaching their final lows.

As much as hardly anyone thinks that the COMP/NDX will 'soon' retake their Spring peaks, I am willing to go on record that it would not surprise me from an elliott standpoint that by Mar2002 or earlier, we had double topped near 5000 on the COMP, if not somewhat higher. I am NOT forecasting that this will 'likely' occur-just that it wouldn't surprise me if it did, Don Hays (whose calls I highly value) notwithstanding. In a longer term big picture, we could simply have completed a deep Wave IV on the COMP in here, not the "Big One" with 3 downlegs (just 2 this time around).

One last point--the VIX is nyse related but the VIX.X is the proper one for the Naz---I gather that the VIX.X exceeded its Oct98 reading several days ago (I myself didn't check), indicating perhaps sufficient panic for this index. The VIX itself of course did not due to the financial and safety oriented drug stocks. If as and when the Naz gets any sort of a head of steam up, the old economy stocks, where many strategists are currently parked for safety reasons, may well be left in the dust again.



To: jmootx who wrote (65526)12/31/2000 2:18:19 PM
From: Stephen M. DeMoss  Respond to of 99985
 
However, 'This time is differant'<G>! We heard how election years are about 90% up years after the election, we talked seasonality Oct-April, we talked 'Christmas rally'...Now we are talking 'January effects'. Not to say you are wrong, but I no longer have confidence on what happened before <G>! Thanks for your input, though <G>. Steve D.



To: jmootx who wrote (65526)1/1/2001 6:19:41 PM
From: JRI  Respond to of 99985
 
J- Hasn't the last few months played havoc with "historical" trends....I am thinking the election year phenomena, Oct. as "low", January effect in December, Never 4 down Naz months in a row, etc....

Also, in the 6 down Naz years since 1971....5 out of 6, the Naz finished higher the last week of the year (from previous week)...The greatest up week? 1973. Also, more than 75% of the last day's of the year's Naz trading has been up. I tried to play that trend and got burned Friday.

I dunno, but this bear seems not to respect "historical trends"..but thanks (seriously) for your reseach...will keep in mind...since I'm all cash..how bout that 1980 next week, so I can feel comfortable jumping in? <G>