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To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (113754)	12/31/2000 1:53:11 PM
From: Bill Harmond	Respond to of 164684

Now that we have category leaders that dominate to the large extent they now do (eg eBay, Yahoo, Amazon in B2C; and same for the B2B leaders, though the list is a bit longer) the risk to startups is the same as competing against Microsoft. There will be plenty of failures along the way, just like in retail. After a point, though there are only so many competitors, and they start looking alike. Then almost nobody gets in until another dislocating technological advance like the commercialized Internet itself. That's a ways off. The advertising model works. You'll get that from advertisers voting with their feet. The advertising industry is in just the US is huge (50+ billion or something) and the Internet has unique advantages. The top few megasites with refined targeting ( read only Yahoo at this point, AOL is way behind Yahoo in targeting. Didn't TK say he has a segment as small as $17,000?) and obvious reach will be the biggest winners and their revenue curves will only steepen. The principle of increasing returns has not been repealed in 2000.