Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Verve who wrote (37297)	12/31/2000 4:30:18 PM
From: Thomas Mercer-Hursh	Respond to of 54805

I'm sorry, I don't get your point. Feeling's mutual, I guess. Every time we turn around in this sphere we get someone talking about how X is going to be ready "soon" while someone else is talking about how we won't really see it for 3 years or whatever. "Soon" oftens seems to correspond to wishful thinking about prototypes which have little to do with being ready for production deployment while "really" often seems to relate to when meaningful volumes will happen. There do seem to be a few places here and there, notably in the northerly parts of the Far East where pieces seem to be on a believably shorter timetable, but in the larger picture of the high speed wireless tornado, these are little squalls and it is clear that it will take years for all the forces to play out in this realm and the full tornado to develop and play out. In the meantime, I don't think anyone can time the details any more than timing works in most people's stock picks. I have every reason to believe that IJ has been sincere when he has spoken and that, on the whole, he has a clearer view of what actually seems to be the state of the art at any given point. This doesn't mean that I think he is prescient or perfect. We will see who deploys what and how many as time goes on. If this were a question of competing technologies, i.e., if it was CMDA versus X where X was another unrelated technology which might fulfill the same requirements, then I wouldn't get anywhere near this as an investment area. However, given that it is a choice between CDMA or CDMA or CDMA, pick your flavor, then it seems that the faster any of it can happen is good news for QCOM.

To: The Verve who wrote (37297)	12/31/2000 4:37:17 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Verve, << My question to you still is, when IJ was representing wCDMA's drawbacks and making them public record, did you think he was lying? >> There is an important point here about handsets that must be taken into account. There is no question that W-CDMA handset requirements push the envelope of current and available handset technology. It appears that the Asian manufacturers have overcome some of these problems, sufficiently enough to enable a small scale and very controlled commercial trial launch by end of May 2001. The Big Three are not in the picture early on. Ericsson says they'll be able to deliver commercially in the late fall. Time will tell. Handsets are always last. Infra will be ready. << it's a surprise that wcdma appears to be ready so soon. >> For the moment W-CDMA appears to be right on schedule. Very little deviation from schedules being talked about this time last year. Simply more confidence being expressed. Only time will tell however. As for lying (IJ)... I would say absolutely not. Overly skeptical ... perhaps. Only time will tell on that one as well. - Eric -

To: The Verve who wrote (37297)	12/31/2000 5:22:15 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Verve, I'll offer my take, responding to your quote about what he said. My question to you still is, when IJ was representing wCDMA's drawbacks and making them public record, did you think he was lying? In a nuthsell, no. The first issue is that you state that he said WCDMA may be as late as 2003. That immediately gives me reason to think it could happen in 2002. If it happens in 2001 -- an "if" that is yet to be proven -- I don't think being a year off is anything to crucify IJ about. As for the issues about the handsets overheating and using too much battery power, we won't know about that until we begin using them. If the handsets indeed run hotter and require more battery power than other kinds of phones, I wouldn't require them to stop working to consider IJ's representation a valid one. If in the meantime QCOM or other engineers have devised a way they think will solve the problem, that still doesn't indicate to me that IJ was lying. If your answer is no, you agree with me that it's a surprise that wcdma appears to be ready so soon. No, I don't agree with you. Until I can hold a WCDMA handset and use it as part of a fully supported infrastructure, I don't know how soon "soon" really is. Second, I think I already explained why I wouldn't be especially surprised if WCDMA does become operational in 2001. Moreover, apparently unlike you, as a QCOM shareholder I would rejoice. If your answer is yes, I'd like to know how you saw through the entire charade. I'll be a smarter investor for it. I hope I explained how I see the situation, though I wouldn't describe it as a charade nor any sequence of events that needs to be "seen through." As a gorilla gamer, I react to product adoption after it begins to happen, not before. Where we might disagree is in the importance of trying to react to an event such as the advent of WCDMA being commercially deployed before it happens. Regardless, I don't see that my comments about that will make you a smarter investor. :) --Mike Buckley