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To: kollmhn who wrote (83151)	1/2/2001 10:25:14 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

kollmnh - re: Fundamentals ~ - get over it ; you were & are wrong. Fundamentals are just one component among many in valuing stocks. What we're trying to say is quite simple Kollmnh & you of all people should relate to "simple"... Often they matter - often they do not. Shareprices often completely & totally disconnect from their fundamentals... they just did, allways have & allways will - and they will again shortly. Koll; they matter the most early in the cycle as the Street during the initial cyclical turnaround often initially refuses to acknowledge the fundamentals - as we saw in early 1999 here. Early in the cycle - fundamentals do matter & create posterchild-contrarian entry plays in cyclical reversals; as the momenteum players have so decimated sectors; that no one pays any attention to the fundamentals any longer - as they mattered so little for so long... Focusing on the fundamentals early in the cycle as it turns around is when one makes the "Big & Easy" money Kollmnh... (allthough you obviously don't understand that - as you weren't here then) focusing on the fundamentals as you did on RRC may work in mid-cycle contractions - if you get lucky enough to get an ultimate bounce-back - but it was not as if it was without a heavy price to pay - as nearly all of RRC's peers doubled & tripled directly into RRC's descent. But, where focusing on & getting blinded by the "Fundamentals" becomes the absolute fools deathknell mantra; is during cycle rollover (HELLO !) as that is when focusing on the fundamentals - looses one the "Big & Easy" money... Kollmnh; there is only one simple question here; Did the Oilpatch just completely ignore not only "the fundamentals" but perhaps the greatest set of fundamentals in Oilpatch history here of late as they collapsed 30% from OSX 140 to 94 ? Obviously they did; so tell me how did fundamentals matter there ? Did fundamentals matter in OCt 97 as the OSX collapsed from 140 to the 80's - as earnings in the individual OSX components were absoutely ramping and did not reach their peak for another 12-15 mos in most cases ? Most OSX companies reached their peak of that earnings cycle in the fall/winter of 1998 - 12-15 months after their shareprices reached their highs (and has anyone else here ever alluded to that sobering fact ?) - yet they collapsed off their highs by 30-40% and never returned; directly collapsing into absolutely ramping fundamentals. ... did the fundamental matter then ? During May to September 1998 the OSX crashed from 120 to 50 into higher & higher earnings reporting in the OSX components. ... did the fundamentals matter then ? During Sept '99 the E&P's also collapsed & tanked - in a near perfect "Deja Vu" fashion on this thread - as we heard the same exact sentiment & focus then. ... did the fundamentals matter in Sept '99 ? Is it the technicals, momenteum, or is it the fundamentals ? But; I guess riding that collapse of RRC from $7 to $2 and the OSX pullback of 30% from 140 to 94 here of late & that Sept '99 E&P collapse - was just "bobbing & weaving" right Koll (VBG)? - that was some serious "bobbing & weaving" as you rode the fundamentals down into the abyss of deadmoney heaven in RRC - as the entire sector doubled & triple all around you...get ready for Deja Vu all over again part deux Koll. ******************************************************************************** ... and if the market truly looks 6 mos forward in "fundamentally" valuing companies today - as we know it does ~ Then it's obviously not FUNDAMENTALS that are moving the Nat Gas E&P's today - it's "Momenteum Investing" koll ! ******************************************************************************* - as 6 mos from now, they will NOT have better fundamentals, they WILL NOT be receiving higher prices for Crude Oil, or Natural Gas, or earning higher eps, or cfps than they will off of Q4 & Q1 reporting (within that 6 mos window). - again; an obvious endorsement that it's "momenteum" and not fundamentals here moving the sector presently. The Smart Money Oilpatch Specialists allready see fundamental rollover & the peak of fundamentals within it's 6 month window for the Nat Gas pureplay E&P's. ... and "smart" money allways sells into the arrival of "momenteum" money - especially in a CYCLICAL SECTOR ! The smart money -"fundamentalists" are those who were taking profits into this pullback - protecting huge gains of the last two years (if they were here) and who are doing so & exiting & rotating to later cycle Oilpatch plays here & now into ANY & ALL further E&P Nat Gas pureplay strength & have set tight trailing stops to capture any upside breakout; but refusing to participate in any rollover-downside. With virtually all the fundamentals declining after this quarter, or Q1 - only multiple expansion, or momenteum money moving in and staying in; will take the E&P's higher - as we're starting to see many stocks reach their own historic valuation multiple caps & the sectors historic cap as well. If you really believe what you are saying;(which I don't think you do - by the way... as you just want to be arguementative when you are so blatantly wrong & sophmoric in your assumptions) your mindset epitomizes getting caught on cycle rollovers in cyclical sectors ... as you did in your own "Deer in Headlights" magnificent obsession in RRC - sitting literally in dead money while the rest of the E&P's and Oilpatch doubled & tripled into RRC's collapse from $7 to that oft quoted & claimed $1 15/16th's "entry" point....yes; finally it has climbed back to nearly (but, not quite) where it started 18 months ago (VBG). Fundamentals.... - just one element... often important & quite obviously; often not... Get over it - you were wrong. You can't ignore the reality of what happened & then claim to be right during uptic's, but not to be wrong during downtic's.... ? You can't have it both ways kollmnh - but; then again... you're used to that; as well as blatantly denying reality & spinning your own yarns on that Coffee Klatch "moderated" board over on Yahoo (VBG) - where it's "your story & you're sticking to it..." - roflamo ~ tic - toc... your'e going to get "rolled over" again in the E&P's just like you did on RRC in mid-cycle... same old fools make the same foolish mistakes ... Candy from a Baby; or money from ignornant old men...don't know which is easier ? Earth to Kollmnh - "ITS MOMENTEUM MONEY KOLL - not fundamentals... that are taking the sector higher. Smart Money exits on the appearnce of momenteum money; especially upon the peak of fundametnals appearing on the near (6 month window)horizon & allways sell & take profits into the arrival of Momenteum money - and if so inclined; reap the rewards on the downside as well - as that is what makes a "True" cyclical investor/trader... someone who doesn't just participate on the upcycle moves & then give half, or even all of it back on the downside by blindly clinging to the fundamentals... but; who makes money in both directions. Ciao ~ tic' - toc' PS: - bring on the ankle bites.... just like the NAZ call; I was going to be deadwrong & everyone else was right (VBG) but where are we now in reality ? NAZ down 90 points with no more tax selling and with the Fed Cut so obvious ? ...this is a chip shot profit taking & soon to be "SHORTING" opp in the Oils... we are getting rotation by "default" here... there is no where else to go & the fundamentals for the E&P's start to the downside upon Q1 reporting... tic toc~ the exit door pops open & they will be yelling fire off Q1 reporting; if not sooner.... just watch. Sadly; most of you won't make it out the door ~ Pigs get Fat - Hogs get slaughtered Deja Vu all over again.... Some people just never learn.... PS S: Euro moving on up - whodathunkit ? Got Gold ?