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To: The Phoenix who wrote (45648)	1/1/2001 12:42:41 PM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

c/o ZO on the Nortel thread. Message 15101140 To: Kenneth E. Phillipps who wrote (9154) From: zbyslaw owczarczyk Saturday, Dec 30, 2000 2:42 PM ET Reply # of 9159 There are about 45 publicly traded CLECs ( private are doing much better) and analysts thinks about half will go out of business or be acquired by big boys). forbes.com Since entire CLECs segment accounts for no more then 10% of total spending, only less then 5% of spending is in risk. When we discount significant cuts in old voice switching( this is why for example WCOM will separate long distance business, which produces lots of cash with little investment) actual spending plans for 2001 for packet(IP/ATM, DSL ect) and optical technology is no different then it was planned in early 2000. From this point, Sagawa is technically right that spending will see slower growth, specially when he looks through dark glasses of Lucent , however it will/is effecting company like Lucent(heavy dependence on voice switching and CLEcs, late with optics) and few smaller players like Copper Mountain which is selling mainly to CELCs. Other like JDSU,ALA , NT will be the winners. Sagawa is simply trying to "explain" to the investment community and his clients why his favorite Lucent is doing so poorly, and his strong support of Lucent over the last two years was correct.However so call spending issue is mainly responsible for Lucent problems( yea right). ZO