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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (65553)	1/1/2001 1:28:33 PM
From: KymarFye	Respond to of 99985

Note on COT: Recent figures for S&P futures positions reflect heavy impact of contract rollover. It might therefore be a mistake to draw major conclusions from recent fluctuations in the numbers for Commercials or, perhaps even more so, for Small Traders. All the same, I agree that the highly bearish outlook remains intact. Interestingly, according to THE BULLISH REVIEW (where I get virtually all of my "insight"), the Commercials' position on Nasdaq 100 futures roughly corresponds the the same levels seen at intermediate market bottoms (such as in May). Because there's not an extensive history of COT and the NDX, and because the position is counterintuitive (excessively net short at the bottom) and may relate to peculiarities of the Commercials approach to the contract, the BR has been wary of interpreting the situation as a valid buy signal, though it does advise shorts at least to protect against a "technical bounce."

To: High-Tech East who wrote (65553)	1/1/2001 3:48:05 PM
From: s berg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Techplayer, Thanks for one of the most interesting investing threads anywhere. I know from your earlier posts that we are at record commercial short levels. Are you saying they are almost always correct (+95%) or alternately correct most of the time (75%). Are they ever way off where the relevant market soars. It sounds like you have studied this area extensively. Just trying to get more of your qualitative gut sense of it. Appreciated your recent post along these lines about unwinding.

To: High-Tech East who wrote (65553)	1/1/2001 10:46:17 PM
From: Techplayer	Respond to of 99985

High-Tech East, Thanks for posting the data. Like Kymar, I get most of my COT info in a weekly email from bullish review. It just came about an hour ago. this week, it just states that the continued trend of near record short positions held by the commercials is bearish for the markets. Last week the comments included those expressed by Kymar that the commercial short holdings were at a peak at the then market bottom. I see no reason for the market to go up at this point. We need earnings surprises to the upside or the fed to surprise the markets for a catalyst in my opinion. Then again, my pessimism could be a contrary indicator... thanks again, tp