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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (27857)	1/1/2001 11:46:10 PM
From: Sully-	Respond to of 65232

Nice article Scott...... Some good food for thought in it. One point bugged me though...... >>"Whether or not they see a contraction, economists have been struck by the suddenness of the economy's loss of momentum."<< How about the Y2K effect? There was a lot of pent up demand due to holding back on projects prior to Y2K.... look at how growth ramped in the first 2 qtr's of 2000. YOY comparisons are going against a boatload of record performance numbers by a wide variety of companies. GDP growth of around 1% in the first 2 qtr's of 2001, will be quite encouraging IMO. Don't get me wrong. We could still see a recession. One or more shocks to the economy would be more than sufficient. OTOH, rate cuts, oil stabilizing in the mid $20's & a palatable tax cut could be just what the doctor ordered. One thing that isn't on the radar screen of many economists..... 3% or more GDP growth..... be vewy careful this yr me thinks. Ö¿Ö