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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Harvey Allen who wrote (49819)	1/2/2001 7:11:53 AM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 94695

Uh oh. While everyone slept. CMR broke out. Could double in no time at all. siliconinvestor.com Now if BMX would only show some life...

To: Harvey Allen who wrote (49819)	1/2/2001 7:14:47 AM
From: Skeet Shipman	Respond to of 94695

Good News: Chicago Fed's Moskow Still Sees No Recession Dec 30 3:26pm ET CHICAGO (Reuters) - U.S. economic growth is slowing, but the economy is not heading toward a recession, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, said in a newspaper interview this weekend, reiterating a view he has previously expressed. Chicago Fed President Michael Moskow declined to say whether the Fed will cut interest rates, the Chicago Sun-Times said in its Sunday editions. The Fed's interest-rate setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee, warned on Dec. 19 that the economy was slowing so fast that there was a risk of a sharp downturn, a signal the central bank was preparing to cut rates soon. Moskow will be a voting member on the FOMC in 2001. "I can tell you that we will be monitoring very carefully all the various indicators (of economic performance) ... and gathering a host of anecdotal information as well," Moskow told the Sun-Times. "And we'll be prepared to do what's best for the American people." Moskow noted that the housing market has stayed "at a very high level," while businesses can still borrow and spend money, despite higher interest rates. Also, despite layoffs announced by many companies in recent months, those workers can still be absorbed into other jobs, he said. "We may see a certain number of layoffs that get a lot of publicity," Moskow said. "But if the economy is still expanding and total jobs (created) are still going up, say 100,000 to 200,000 a month, then those people are being absorbed into the economy and other jobs." Moskow said the Fed is carefully watching rising energy prices. "In essence, it's like a tax increase," he said. "It hurts businesses as well, increases their costs. It's one of the elements of the risk that we see toward weaker economic growth going forward." Moskow said earlier this month that he did not see a significant risk of recession, though there has been slowing in the economy. A Chicago Fed spokesperson could not be reached to comment on the Sun-Times article. Bill, The weekly indicators I follow have been getting stronger since the beginning of Nov. Strong enough to put a rate cut in question??? !!! Remember, good news is bad news. !!! Skeet PS My core holdings increased 27% in 2000. Unfortunately, I didn't completely sell out of my old tech and new tech ending up with about 14%.

To: Harvey Allen who wrote (49819)	1/4/2001 7:48:18 AM
From: Harvey Allen	Respond to of 94695

Euro Erases Losses vs Dollar After Federal Reserve Cuts Rates London, Jan. 4 (Bloomberg) -- The euro rose, erasing losses sustained after the U.S. Federal Reserve unexpectedly cut interest rates, as investors speculated European economic growth will still outstrip that of the U.S. in the months ahead. The euro rebounded as high as 95.20 U.S. cents, after dropping as low as 92.62 yesterday following the rate cut. It recently traded at 94.68 cents, little changed from late European trading yesterday, before the Fed decision. The euro and dollar rose against the yen amid concern Japanese growth is stalling. ``The deterioration in the U.S. economy won't change overnight,'' even with the Fed rate cut, said Nick Shamim, a currency and fixed income strategist at Thomson Global Markets. ``Until we see a turnaround in U.S. fundamentals I don't think investors will be rushing in to buy dollars.'' Traders and investors got another reminder of the different outlooks for European and U.S. growth as France reported an unexpected gain in consumer confidence in December. By contrast, a U.S. index of December consumer confidence fell to the lowest reading in two years, a private report last week showed. The more robust euro zone economy suggests the European Central Bank will leave interest rates on hold at its meeting today. The decision will be announced at 12:45 p.m. London time. Twelve of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News predicted the ECB will hold the rate unchanged, and three said there will be one more quarter-point increase. Many analysts expect economic expansion in the euro zone to surpass growth in the U.S. this year. Economists expect growth of 2 percent in the U.S. and 3 percent in the 12-nation euro region, said Noel Mills, chief economist at Barclays Global Investors, which manages $826 billion worldwide. `Ridiculous' The Fed's decision to cut rates validated many investors' concern U.S. growth is slowing, analysts said. ``The fact it was 50 basis points, and was before the payrolls number smacks of panic'' to investors, said Steve Barrow, a currency strategist at Bear Stearns International. ``It was a totally ridiculous reaction from the dollar yesterday and it's only right it's paying for it now.'' Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and the bank's Federal Open Market Committee lowered their target for the overnight lending rate between banks by half a percentage point to 6 percent, the first reduction in two years. They also cut the discount rate on Fed loans to banks a quarter point, to 5.75 percent. Immediately after the rate cut the dollar rose to a four-day high against the euro as investors chanelled funds into U.S. equities. The Nasdaq Composite Index made its biggest gain of 14.2 percent, and the Standard & Poor's 500 rose 5 percent. Further stock gains could lift the dollar. Nasdaq futures suggest they won't rise. March Nasdaq 100 Index futures fell 65 to 2464.5. More Cuts Interest rate cuts typically weigh on a currency because they reduce the returns on deposits. There could be a further 50 basis points of cuts this year, some analysts said. That would narrow the rate gap between the U.S. and euro zone, where borrowing costs stand at 4.75 percent. ``I wouldn't rule out a further 25 basis point cut later this month'' in the U.S., and another reduction of the same size later in the year, said Stefan Schilbe, an economist at HSBC Trinkaus in Dusseldorf. The benchmark rate gap between the U.S. and euro region has narrowed by 150 basis points since June. Six months ago, euro zone rates were 3.75 percent while U.S. borrowing costs were at 6.5 percent. Tomorrow's labor figures are expected to provide more evidence the U.S. economy is slowing. The unemployment rate probably rose to 4.1 percent for December from 4 percent in the previous month, analysts said. Workers' average hourly earnings probably rose 0.3 percent after rising 0.4 percent. The Commerce Department today releases its factory orders report for November at 3 p.m. London time. A 1.2 percent increase is likely compared with a 3.3 percent decline in October, analysts said. The yen weakened further against the dollar and the euro amid concern the world's second-biggest economy is stalling. In December, business confidence waned in Japan, household spending and industrial production fell, and the jobless rate rose to a nine-month high. ``There's some risk the Japanese economy may run into recession,'' said HSBC's Schilbe. ``We're still pessimistic on the yen.'' The euro recovered against the yen to trade at 108.26 yen per euro, from as low as 105.27 yen. The dollar is still near a 16- month high at 114.33 yen from 114.14 yesterday. quote.bloomberg.com I wonder what happens if the Feds keep cutting rates down to 1% and the patients heart still doesn't start beating?