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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave B who wrote (63494)	1/3/2001 7:51:30 AM
From: gnuman	Respond to of 93625

Dave, re: "Just a quick nit." Good point. When you analyze the article it seem's the only thing's attributable to Samsung are 30 million units valued at $900 M dollars, and projected 53% RDRAM share in 2001. The writer seems to have estimated 2000 RDRAM revenues at $1.7B based on an assumption of 53% share for Samsung last year. Clearly, Samsung had greater market share last year which means RDRAM revenues were much lower. The failure of the i820 in the market was the main reason for RDRAM's poor share of the DRAM market in 2000. What was predicted to be the sweet spot on desk tops has all but disappeared from PC offerings. (Note the i820 is no longer on Intel's roadmap, and Dell no longer offers i820 based products in it's Home PC line). The Dell 4100 is now the sweet spot using PIII and i815. Going forward I think the key for Rambus in 2001 is SDRAM. (I still predict >80% share of units). Is Intel's crystal ball broken? If 2000 is an indicator the answer is yes. As I said in an earlier post, I think the key market changes last year were saturation, PC literacy and lack of need. And in those developing markets, (ie:, China), PIII and Celeron will be the sweet spot for a long time. JMHO's

To: Dave B who wrote (63494)	1/3/2001 10:39:48 AM
From: gnuman	Respond to of 93625

Dave, More thoughts on the DRAM market in Y2001. With SDRAM migrating to 128Mb as highest volume, (and with process shrinks), my WAG is 128Mb SDRAM's will have an ASP <$10.00 this year. (History tells us that 128Mb device price should approach 64Mb devices). The result is that 128MB PC133 DIMM's will continue to be <$100.00, but with higher margins for the makers. Will RDRAM reach parity? Will the makers add the infrastructure to make them in large quantities? (Monitoring tester sales may provide a clue). JMHO's