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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: excardog who wrote (83212)	1/2/2001 11:14:43 AM
From: Second_Titan	Respond to of 95453

API's will be less the SPR and Iraq's counter to the SPR would be showing up the US market around now as well.

To: excardog who wrote (83212)	1/2/2001 11:51:42 AM
From: Telemarker	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

excardog, also consider what a falling Greenback will do to oil priced in $US. eom.

To: excardog who wrote (83212)	1/2/2001 11:54:27 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

excardog... we don't differ (much anyway) on Oil. I've emphasised "NATURAL GAS PUREPLAY's" in my comments - my short selling target list was all Nat Gas oriented.... I would NOT short the oilier E&P names, the integrateds, or the majors - and definitely NOT - the drillers & service. I would be long all those sub-sectors but I'd be looking for profit taking opps continually - and I wouldn't be chasing and buying them into this rally here. Hold if you got them earlier; but I wouldn't be buying anything driller/service into this move... excepting a few laggards - I did add some WG, FGH, some SCSWF (an old fav)PGO at $10's etc... but not anything near a full entry. I've got some nice Driller Calls for April,May. Overall I've got perhaps 60% gold/silver, 15-18% long Oilpatch, nothing short yet & 25% cash & all my margin... but; I anticipate being into margin & short the Nat Gas E&Ps on a 35-45% portfolio basis during that coming 100 Day Death March for the Nat Gas E&P's ... We just saw a historic confluence of positive events in the Nat Gas E&Ps that may never be seen again for decades, or even in our lifetime... if that isn't a profit taking & exit opp - AND a shorting opp; there NEVER will be one - ever. This is, was and will allways be a cyclical sector. We fall faster than we rise & the fall allways occurs sooner than we all anticipate & is more rapid than we all anticipate ... most of "us" anyway (VBG). I spoke about OXY & TLM not being expensive at all - there are plenty of rotation targets with the E&P's - the majors are often net buyers of crude oil - with their refining & chemical operations - they may actually earn more money at $25 Oil than $35 Oil & yes; Oil could go higher and OPEC has the cards - but what is "different this time" for OPEC - is the slowing US Economy - THAT changes everything ! ... if we were in this scenario of Crude retracing off $35 to the mid $20's a year ago - economy-wise; then the Crude levered names like VPI NEV etc would be great buys - (and I do think that VPI & NEV may go higher). - I just think shorting the Nat Gas pureplays has more upside than going long the oilier names. There are individual stories I like very, very much - like EEX. I like the small caps that are financially repairing & transforming themselves here - those are still buys here. Buying drillers & service - especially buying March-April 01 calls on that pullback sub OSX 100 was a smart money play ( I have a few) - as was taking profits on this last E&P run up and as will be dumping the Nat Gas pureplays here into ANY & ALL further strength - and going short. It is literally this simple: E&P's will NOT be delivering higher cfps & eps in Q3, Q4 & forward into 2001 & 2002; than they will in this Q4 and the upcoming Q1 period. The absolute rollover peak of FUNDAMENTALS in earnings & cash flow - ie: what the E&P's are valued on; is less than 100 days away ! .... one message to the Nat Gas E&P cheerleaders: TIC TOC ! Do you guys REALLY think that the Street is going to take the E&P sector to new highs into negative sequential & soon to be negative year, over year earnings reporting ? Unless you think Nat Gas is going to sustain over $7-$8; it's profit taking time & if Crude retraces.... Nat Gas Company shareprices have rarely not retraced strongly in sympathy. Risk vs. Reward... that concept seems to have been forgotten & it epitomizes "Hog -Thinking" here. ... I do not understand that people do not see the Nat Gas story as perhaps one of the ultimate "Short Selling" opps in sector history... and I'm be being serious - one of the alltime great short selling opps. We have a slowing US economy, are about to get Government Intervention, have an exponentially higher amount of Rigs Drilling now - than we did in 1998 which created the problem, or last year in 1999. It's when, not if - we reach equilibrium. It's also the "peak" - not equlibrium; that you guys better be selling off of... But; as ususal - people here are making the FUNDAMENTAL mistake of waiting to see the "bottom", or "equilibrium" come into sight to exit vs. looking for the "PEAK" and we are in the midst of THE PEAK forming as we speak... Uhh ohhh.... Jerry Castellinni is on CNBC & is talking about NBR having $15 eps capacity here..... he's a good guy; had it all right during the upcycle - but, talking about Blue-Sky $15 eps for NBR here is setting up their exit- once the once "sane" & realistic fundamentalists (VBG) - start citing that "blue sky" numbers like $15ish eps for the NBR's of the sector - it's the final phase to draw in the Mo-Mo boys & Day Traders... they're preparing to exit... I think we see a blow-off into earnings announcments - and another OSX buying/entry opp before the March-May rally that I pray isn't capped by a too rapidly slowing US economy. OPEC's production cut may be totally offset by a slowing US economy - which will slow the Asian & European economies in time & then the rollover on the downward slope to yet another cycle... I'd be happy to get an OSX 150-165 move in March to May & then this cycle may have seen it's highs... as it all depends on the US Economy & the story for 2001 will be "HOW SOFT IS SOFT - STUPID"... and we simply don't know the answers to that yet... untill we do - it's a profit taking mode... if we land soft & take off again economically; then & only then can we begin to talk about a historic multi-year expansion cyle & the $15 eps potential of a NBR etc.... Untill then it's Pig not Hog mode. ... if you want to talk about Fundamentals - the GOLD story is the posterchild. Cut rates & the dollar falls & that makes gold rise. Don't cut rates & the market continues to collapse & gold rises. Let any "global financial" crisis occur involving the incredibly leveraged long US Dollar - Short Gold derivative position occur during this NAZ meltdown & we'll see history unfold... if the US Dollar rapidly falls upon foreign repatriation - GOLD will explode and all the signals point in that direction....the minute OPEC asks to be paid in Euro's - it's over. Gold has nearly allways spiked at the "end" of all Oil/Energy Shocks and it's poised perfectly on a FUNDAMENTAL basis here.... perfectly. The US dollar is a bigger bubble than our market was... it is fundamentally unsustainable against our negative account deficit and it's getting worse... it also is killing US corporate profits - putting Greenspan in a "catch-22/lessor of two evils" position and Gold wins in either scenario. .. and new Treasury Sec O'Neill is a soft dollar proponent - game, set & match - Gold Wins... when, not if & sooner than most think.