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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee who wrote (2799)	1/2/2001 2:06:31 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 3536

Lee, I think the coming slowdown is pretty much the garden variety recession that we always have. It's being triggered by high interest rates as every post-war recession was. It will also be typical in the sense that an inventory cycle is about to turn and that excess capacity will lead to a drop in plant and equipment spending. I do agree that we are looking at some large rate cuts. Your 300 point decline in Fed funds rate is right along my estimates. If the Fed brings rates down by this amount in the next 6 months, I think we will escape recession. A falling dollar and tax cuts will help too.