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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GST who wrote (113933)	1/2/2001 5:17:27 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

INTC, AMAT, SUNW, YHOO and ORCL closed just fine. Most of the nastiness was in the high fliers today. B2B overpriced junk, fiber optic crap, biotech bubbly, etc Cheap stocks like AMAT INTC DELL MSFT WCOM did alright. Not cheap but reasonably priced and still growing stocks like SUNW, ORCL, YHOO fell less or equal to the averages. It's the 20-25% declines in the high fliers like BRCD, JNPR, OPWV, CIEN, CMRC, RIMM that stunk up the joint today. Stocks with multi-billion dollar valuations and not much cash and not much earnings. No seasoned management either. I just can't see how a company like KO can trade at 80 times earnings after an earnings warning and be called "safe" while a company like SUNW trades at 30 times earnings and will most definitely grow more than the 5-8% that Coke will! Yeah, yeah, yeah, sure if there is a recession you could make a reasonable claim that SUNW could have no growth and even declines. But come on, you don't make that bet right on the cusp of a Fed ease. I guess there is no point in me being redundant, I will make my view quite clear. The only cure for this sickness is the Fed. If you believe the Fed isn't going to raise rates until Jan 30th or later or only a 1/4 point at the end of January, stay short. If you think the Fed is going to cut this week or a half point at the end of January you got to start looking for opportunities right now. As ugly as this market is, there are stocks that have still held above their prior lows. They didn't take my little YHOO back down to 25. They took my SUNW down to 25 but then bounced it to 26 just after the close, so it held the 25 level. They just couldn't knock my INTC down below 30 on a down 7.3% day and AMAT was kissing 40 all day. ORCL closed above where I purchased. It really didn't seem like that bad of a day to me considering how bad the averages were. Looks to me like we just made a double bottom of the lows on 12/20. You want to look for a few things when a market makes a double bottom. The second move down of the W should be slightly lower than the first to shake out the weak hands and freak people out that a breakdown is occurring. Second of all, it should occur on light volume. The first decline should be on heavy volume to show some signs of capitulation, and the rally should be on heavy volume, but the second move down should lighten up on the volume. Then, next you look at the breadth of the market. When the Naz hit 2300 on 12/20 there were about 940 new lows on the Nasdog. Today we had an even lower close (a slight double bottom if it holds), yet there were only 131 new lows. That is a major positive divergence. Certainly enough of a divergence where I wouldn't be shorting with reckless abandon. It's the kind of divergence that makes me try to feel for a bottom. How many days have there been where the Nasdog dropped over 7% on the day yet there weren't even twice as many stocks down as there were up? On 12/20 when we were down slightly less % than today decliners led advancers almost 5 to 1. Today it was less than 3:2.