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Strategies & Market Trends : Currencies and the Global Capital Markets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2804)	1/2/2001 9:12:11 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Respond to of 3536

This drop in orders is much worst than I anticipated. Indeed.... I'm surprised there hasn't been more discussion of LTV filing for bankruptcy since I recall someone mentioning that AG closely watches the steel industry. I smell a rate cut coming sometime soon... maybe tomorrow or Thursday (at least my other "guru" thinks so.. :0) This US economy has locked up and is in a skid because of AG's psychological head-gaming. He gave us massive liquidity last year to make us feel good through, and now he's created exactly the very thing he feared then, financial and economic panic. Regards, Ron

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (2804)	1/3/2001 9:35:05 AM
From: Robert Douglas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3536

I think that even if the fed's cut .25% this week, the down side movement of the market will resume shortly after such a cut, IMHO. It's very much a Catch-22 for the investor. If the Fed begins easing and stocks rally, then the Fed will be less aggressive in further easings. If the Fed eases and stocks still flounder, then further easings will likely be swift and aggressive. Either way, the economic slowdown will likely be self-limiting. Unless you believe this slowdown will be long-lasting, the bottom in stocks will likely be seen sometime during this year and probably within 6 months from the first easing. While it is quite possible that stocks will decline after the Fed begins cutting, I think the declines will be limited, probably not more than an additional 10%.