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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 100cfm who wrote (37403)	1/2/2001 8:37:26 PM
From: Eric L	Respond to of 54805

100, << I'm having trouble with your links today, couldn't open that one either >> I see why. I'd tell you why but then I'd have to .... << Something is not making sense to me >> I can see why. << Re 1.8 billion cell phones by 2006 >> Actually "1.8 billion phones in use by 2006" - Just like saying 1.8 B subs (a phone is a sub) << 1 billion by lets say mid 02 >> Or like Jorma said. "When Jorma Ollia stepped up to the microphone, few expected he'd swing for the bleachers. But swing he did, raising Nokia's subscriber forecast to over a billion by 2002. This was bold, even by Finnish standards." Are U into believing Jorma now? Thats reasonably aggressive but SOME have said 1 B by mid 2002. Then: Ericsson is forecasting 1 B by end of 2003. Strategis has said 2 B by 2010. They are on the conservative side. There were 653 million subcribers in the world end of October (EMC). Remember this: Cellular sub growth rates are declining. Even though replacement sales are (naturally) increasing. That is why GPRS handset sales should be huge (already 30 networks commercially live or testing). Penetration up = Growth rate down (Tero's Law). << That means only 200 million handsets on avg per yr till mid 2006 to get to 1.8B Sales of handsets are over 500M per yr. now >> Not quite. Handset sales do NOT equal net subscriber adds. That's where things don't make sense to you. Net subscriber adds = New subscribers - Churn Handset sales = New subscriber adds + Churn + Replacement sales - Eric -