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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: NucTrader who wrote (39850)	1/2/2001 8:56:31 PM
From: Paul Shread	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

A measured bear move will be complete at 2199 (5132-3042=2090; 4289-2090=2199). It should be hard to go much lower than that without some significant consolidation.

To: NucTrader who wrote (39850)	1/3/2001 1:36:12 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42787

>>my concern is the intermediate bottom on this run may be under 2K. << I am not sure what to make of this. I don't have a lot of buy signals or even over sold signals that look good yet but I have some pretty good lines that say we bounce and we bounce hard possibly forming a tweezer bottom. I can't imagine what in the world would cause a bounce after a day like today but the fib retracements also point to this being the low assuming we drop a bit more tomorrow. My spidy sense is also tingling saying to grab this despite the ugly charts. The main thing that bugs me is the futures being up, it just smells of a trap. I don't want to chase a gap up. I would rather grab a morning drop. I had a signal pop out on my CSCO chart tonight that I haven't seen in over 2 years. <NG> I recall it meant it was a pre-trigger for a buy in soon but I will be darned if I can remember what the "C" stands for. It just goes to show how long this junk was over bought and over priced. Hope it doesn't mean "Crash" <ggggg> Speaking of which, I saw some alarming set ups in a few charts tonight that shows we could have a MAJOR dump. Not enough to cause serious concern yet since they weren't rampant nor even necessarily plentiful and I can't even recall all of them now a few hours later. It was just a few things that brought back memories of yesteryear. There were a few giant H&S, a lot of wedges in the financials that have been there a while but are drawing to resoulution about 3/4 of the way through them and some descending triangles all interspersed with the 2 big black candles that were talked about by you all today. There is also a lot of volatility in my indicators such as advance /decline volume charts etc. Churning like this is usually right before a huge move and this drop so far isn't it. Either the Fed is going to do something bizarre to cause a big rally or we could bounce a bit from these over sold levels and then really fall hard on something like a bearish CC Call or earnings miss. Over all, I am looking to buy here despite the few bad things I see so far. We have dropped over 50% now and have to be close to a bounce point soon. I was really bored at work today and was re-reading some old market books. Of course the times had me focusing on the bear market chapters and there were some very interesting items. Many bear counter trend rallies retrace over half of the previous decline and can last for 3-4 months. Imagine what that would do today when one up day creates a return to irrational exuberance already. They could really tear some perma bulls heads off with a move like that. A quick scan through my weekly charts had me about 30% over sold and primed for bounce set ups off of good support lines or with a bounce what would form a nice weekly hammer. My main bearish concerns short term are going to be the financials and old economy stocks that were propped up going into the end of the year. JNJ, ADM etc made some nice looking reversals today and of course GE looks like death now and even if it bounces right back for a while the cracks in the armor are showing. The biggest question to be answered is will the money rotate to tech or chase the bonds some more? The 10 year note is now back to Feb 99 levels bearing under 5%. They can't run them to zero. The NAPM report was a sliver away from recession levels so coupled with the drop in the US Dollar to under 109, the foreign money has to be getting nervous and eyeballing the exits. That may be why the futures are being propped up right now. To much more weakness could threaten to start a stampede out the gates. Despite the tech weakness, I think that it is a safer place to be now as long as you don't buy the fluff stuff. SOme of these DOW stocks are not growth stocks yet are being given the vlauations of bubble stocks. I could easily see a DOW drop to 9400 where as I have the NDX pegged at around 2K to 1850. There are some really good names out there now that I finally think are buyable again. Just in a TA sense, I have to stop ragging on NTAP since it is finally back in it's old channel though it may not hold, it isn't as inflated as it had been the last year. SUNW is looking decent again as are a bunch of other stocks that I follow that are less well known. MY main problem now is going to be a lack of cash to buy them all. This is what what I have been waiting for for over a year and now that it is here, they are all going on sale at the same time. <ggggg> I just hope we don't bounce too hard when the time does come and we can have a nice steady bullish rise instead of these 2 day meteoric rallies on decreasing volume only to form yet another wedge. DISCLAIMER - I am not saying to buy NTAP, SUNW or anything else. I have a whole sheet of things and desired entry points I am watching. Whatever gets there gets bought. I don't like to chase so if it reverses too early, I tend not to go after it. As a matter of fact I still think a new set of leaders will emerge when this is over and I doubt it will be anything we are watching right now. Heck, it may be pawn shop stocks <ggg> While I think the bottom is near, I am using my gut almost as much as my chart reads and I don't have anywhere near the number of buy indications I had in prior bottoming turning points. I am still in the "we are getting close" category and not the "this is it" category. When I say I am going to be doing some buying, I mean legging in a bit at a time and maybe not even a whole third. I play by ear as the market moves. Do your own DD etc. Good Luck, Lee