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To: fedhead who wrote (53061)	1/2/2001 9:45:35 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Respond to of 436258

i think for a double bottom the lows are spaced too closely together in time. most really successful double bottoms have taken at least 6 weeks to form, and usually were accompanied by a sentiment capitulation. we haven't had that yet. it's of course possible that a bounce could ensue from a low made with the t/a divergences you cite, but don't forget, in a bear market the rule book is different. to give you an example: in the '73/74 bear, the peak in NYSE new lows was actually reached very early in the bear market, in Mid '73. you couldn't possibly have pinpointed the low of that bear using NH/NL divergences. but an a/d line divergence did pinpoint the end...only in an unexpected manner: it made a NEW low, while the market made a secondary, higher low after the first rally off the bottom. same thing happened in '98 btw. a potentially bullish divergence exists on the Dow Indu a/d volume chart. however, the same divergence doesn't show up in other index a/d vol. charts, so i'm not sure if one should read too much into it.