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To: Boplicity who wrote (8353)	1/2/2001 11:27:01 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 13572

I Just did a valuation check on JNPR, CSCO, SEBL, NTAP, and EMC based on 5 yr % gwr. If the market wants stocks to trade at something less then 2 times say around 1.5 times 5 yr % gwr, then CSCO and JNPR both need to be 20 or so, SEBL and EMC 30's, and NTAP 25 or so. Still tons of downside if Mr. Market feels the need to correct to 1 to 2 times earnings. You have to remember I'm using three month old 5 yr numbers too. MSFT is at around 1.7 now, the question is, what premium will the market award CSCO as compared to MSFT? A higher one in my book. I think the key to trying to understand the continuing market slide, is use CSCO as the Rosetta Stone, on the valuation front. So CSCO at 25 seems reasonable for a 1.86, that would be around an additional 20% drop. We have to wait till Feb for CSCO's earnings but we will get JNPR Jan 16th. The bulk of the earnings season is right in the middle of the month, after that we will have a good handle what the outlook will be then. So, If I was big time short, I would be thinking of covering sometime with in the next 7 to 10 days during the remaining warning season, unless of course I feel the world is ending. <g> Greg That is exactly why I have been so bearish on JNPR and BRCD. Of course RIMM is off the scale - LOL Greg, can you try that again with C, MER, PVN, JPM, FNM look at the 5 year charts and tell me you think this is sustainable Thanks M

To: Boplicity who wrote (8353)	1/2/2001 11:30:01 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

Sorry Greg, the world ain't endin, so I am covering my RIMM puts before the FED meeting, unless I hedge them with short term calls. M

To: Boplicity who wrote (8353)	1/3/2001 12:48:47 AM
From: bonnuss_in_austin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

"CSCO=Rosetta Stone" -- That is wonderful, ...Gregory M! That is SO RIGHT!!! Love it!!! LOL!!! SI should start some sort of 'hall of fame' for such analogies ... best I've seen. Wow -- earn anncmt 1/16 for JNPR, eh? May be some time in that one for more puts or outright shorts ... Although, wouldn't they have already warned with just 14 days to go? Maybe not, though ... I remember when Ekhard Pfieffer pulled one of his last little CPQ pipe-stuffing stunts and warned within a week, as I recall ... they sent him packing shortly after that one ... <g> Rosetta Stone. Priceless. 'b-i-a' ###