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Non-Tech : The Critical Investing Workshop -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (34508)	1/3/2001 1:04:36 AM
From: bonnuss_in_austin	Respond to of 35685

Awww, Frank ... if you weren't such a gasbag, ... people might take some -- well, like, 10 percent or so on a good day -- of what you have to say all over the SI investing site somewhat seriously. Hey! I'm making a fortune shorting your former employer! I thought that knowing that might make you happy, as a person so committed to seeing others do well in the stock market, yes? Through your selfless sharing of 'the wisdom?' hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha 'b-i-a' ###

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (34508)	1/3/2001 11:34:11 AM
From: jambo-bwana	Respond to of 35685

Part One I re-balance my portfolio each year between December and February, when valuations normally peak, to avoid being overweighted in any single stock I tried to search for the posts where you identified your portfolio allocations as of Jan 1, 2000 and the one in April but could not locate them. I will merely say that my recollection is that your portfolio went through a substantial shift on each of those occasions and thereafter in November. I do not fault you for utilizing whatever strategies you deem appropriate for rebalancing your portfolio or liquidating stocks for the other reasons that you outlined. Where I find a contradiction is that you under-emphasize this aspect in your postings even as you preach the mantra of ltb&h ad nauseum. The remark was made with humorous intent. I'll try to remember to insert grinnie thingies in the future Not a bad idea since I have noticed that you are not usually averse to using those "grinnie thingies" in your posts. to help guide newbie investors and humor challenged critics I am much relieved to hear that the remark was made in jest - for one brief moment I thought that the vagaries of the market were taking a toll on your capacity to think rationally. As for your comment regarding "newbie and humor challenged critics", I suspect that I do not fit into the former category since I have been active in the market for rather longer than you have. I could, of course, be "humor challenged" as you put it - certainly the subtlety of your humor went over my head. But then I suspect that it went over the head of most others who read that post - however, I am sure that you caught the humor and sat there chuckling as you typed it -g- Please note that those comments were made on the Curmudgeon thread, a recreational site where we practice a dry form of humor. A quick read of the thread header and faq will verify that premise, should you have any interest in fairly characterizing my remarks there Yes, I will acknowledge the humor that you doubtless intended when you suggested the Dr. Id's self interest in terms of his portfolio values being enhanced would be best served with the election of "dubya". However, unless the subtlety of your humor has again gone over my head, I suspect that you, like many others, have this mistaken belief that the markets fare better under Republican administrations. It may interest you to know that there have been academic studies which have shown that markets fare as well and in the case of at least one study that I have seen, fare better under Democratic administrations. Now the rationale offered by Republican partisans is that this is because Republican administrations that succeed Democratic ones have to rectify the damage cause by the latter. This is not unlike the standard spiel that one hears from Republicans that much of the economic success that was achieved during the Clinton administration was because of Reagan's economic program. jambo-bwana (somewhat type 3)

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (34508)	1/3/2001 11:34:38 AM
From: jambo-bwana	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 35685

Part Two Assuming you have some interest in investing, if you have any other questions I can help you with I appreciate your offer - and I am sure that it is well-intentioned - but anyone whose portfolio takes a hit of +25% in less than 6 weeks should be a shade wary of feeling qualified to offer investment advice, IMHO. However, let me offer you some advice: I believe that you have posted that the bulk of your investment experience has been over 5 years or so. I am younger than you are and have been "retired" for several years - and I have been in the markets considerably longer than you have. Achieving financial independence, at a relatively young age, is something that few succeed in doing. But when you get to that point, look at diversifying somewhat - by all means allocate a portion of your funds to "gorillas" and the like but recognize that if you are successful in identifying such companies, it will not take a substantial investment to achieve gargantuan returns. But in the meantime, the bulk of your funds will be reasonably secure - and you will not jeopardize your financial security and peace of mind. Bruce Brown has an interesting post regarding the relative performance of his non-tech portfolio during this period. Go back and read some of the comments by Paul Senior on your thread some time back. He was "driven away" as have others who have sought to offer counsel in this regard. The strength of your thread is in the substantive discussion about stocks - the weakness is in its inability to incorporate the realities of investing. Do you recall posting something relatively recently to the effect that you have now learned the value of portfolio management? With all due respect, the fact that it took a severe market decline to teach you that lesson, is indicative of your naivete when it comes to the fundamentals of investing. I don't know to what extent your "staying power" and that of your wife has been tested by this decline - certainly there are postings on your thread that seem to suggest that others are going through a lot of pain. The question that you and others in the same boat have to ask yourselves is whether you are likely to throw in the towel - or at the least undergo a lot of trauma - if your portfolio values decline another 50% from where it is today before we bottom. Remember with the high beta/high PE stocks that you own, a 500 point decline in the Composite, from where we are, will probably have that effect or close to it. I never doubted for a moment that the gorilla thread would have its comeuppance - it was a matter of time. Some on your thread have been candid enough to acknowledge that it was a combination of arrogance and greed that caused them to see their portfolios whittle away. I have yet to see you acknowledge that - perhaps you do, in your heart of hearts, and if so that is good. There is a big difference in saying that one is in it for the long haul when we are in a strong uptrend and maintaining that nonchalant attitude when portfolio values have been sliced by more than 50%. Oh - while I am at it - forget about wanting to find little boxes to fit all of life's intricacies! Widen your market related reading beyond Moore - check out Fosback's "Stock Market Logic" and since you have displayed a passing interest in the technical aspects of the markets, find some of Justin Mamis' works. you can reach me by PM I prefer communicating through public postings - except when there is something of a sensitive nature. Prosperous Investing - now when I say that I mean it literally unlike when you say it! jambo-bwana (in more of the "builder" vs "destroyer" role -g-)