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To: craig crawford who wrote (114049)	1/2/2001 10:27:03 PM
From: GST	Respond to of 164684

Craig: There are so many issues -- but if you are AG and see yourself as an arhitect, and if you have strong design preferences, which AG clearly has, then you would look at the Nasdaq run up to 5000 last spring as a horrifying and ugly blotch on the design of the economy. Economies do not grow strong and long based on stock speculation -- they blow themselves out. AG has argued for savings, savings and more savings. Today there was a big rally in treasuries -- and I believe AG felt just great today -- it was a great day for the markets. Stocks got whipped and savings got rewarded -- a stellar day in the markets. AG does not need, want or feel the need for that big ugly blotch to come back. You are kidding yourself if you think he will declare an emergency and come to the rescue. He wil take his time and lower rates while pumping in a little extra liquidity as the foreigners take their money out of the country.

To: craig crawford who wrote (114049)	1/3/2001 7:35:05 AM
From: allen menglin chen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

Rate cut as early as Jan 5??? by: the_merchant_of_venus Subject: early rate cut coming I went mostly short on Friday, paid off well today. However, I have started to shift to the long side and will continue to do so tomorrow. The likelihood is increasing that the Fed will cut rates before the next FOMC meeting, possibly as soon as Friday. Today's NAPM report showed business activity at it's lowest level since 1991. This is a clear signal that we are on the brink of recession. The index of manufacturing output rate of 43.7 was more than 3 points lower than anyone expected. cnnfn.cnn.com Friday's unemployment report will be the other shoe dropping. If the jobless rate climbs more than an expected 0.1% (to 4.1%), an immediate rate cut is almost guaranteed. The higher the unemployment rate; the sooner, bigger and more likely the rate cut. 1991 was our last recession, and the Fed cut interest rates several times that year - each time on the day of an unemployment report. Another contributing factor is the ongoing decline in oil prices, which relieves inflation fears. A surprise rate cut - especially if it's a half point - will trigger a strong and sudden rally that could last a couple of days. And as we have seen, a rising tide lifts turds the fastest. The market was even open the last time Greenspan issued a surprise rate cut (Oct 15 1998). zdnet.com A surprise intra-meeting rate cut will not rule out or even diminish the likelihood of another rate cut at the FOMC meeting at the end of the month. So the rally could have legs. Bear Sterns considers an early rate cut a near certainty. bearstearns.com ========================================================== I think NAZ should rally into Friday. If no rate cut, then another strong selloff.