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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (41240)	1/3/2001 1:59:06 AM
From: John Trader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Brian, Thanks for the comments. I am considering buying into AMAT quite a bit more, on weakness, and want to try to address things that could go wrong, the ones I know about at least like this Moore's Law issue. I plan to hold for a year at least if I buy in. If you or anyone else is aware of other pitfalls in buying AMAT in the 30's, please mention it. I am not concerned about overall market risk at these levels, and am fairly confident about the management (just based on past performance), and think that chip demand will continue such that any decline in AMAT orders will not last very long. An interesting way to look at AMAT here is the PEG computed using the 5 year earnings growth estimate, using data published by Yahoo "Research". The numbers are: PEG = (39.5/2.40)/25 = .66 vs. 1.92 for the S&P (S&P PEG computed using next year's earnings growth estimate). Per this looks like a good buy relative to the S&P, but of course this is a very simplistic analysis. John

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (41240)	1/3/2001 5:35:55 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

One thing I forgot to add and it is a question really posed to those with much greater erudition than myself. IC's have both critical and non-critical layers, meaning that some layers need bleeding edge technology while others do not. Is there the possibility of a hybrid chip, one in which some layers will require advanced(next generation, whatever that is) technology, but the other half can rely on "old" technology? And what is currently the most viable post-silicon technology? Where is K Derbyshire when we need her:-) Brian Subject 50522