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Technology Stocks : All About Sun Microsystems -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JDN who wrote (40008)	1/3/2001 12:10:57 PM
From: QwikSand	Respond to of 64865

He ought to act NOW to demonstrate the FED will NOT allow this pullback to set into a Recession. I am not the only one saying this, everyone is, SO, WHY DOESNT HE? I agree with you of course, I've said so like everybody else has said so. However, I doubt that a wimpy quarter-point cut, which is ALL he's likely to come up with assuming he cuts this month at all, will impress the market enough to reverse its direction. I now think the Fed will have to cut 1 full point before the economy turns around, and because of his "gradualist" approach, that will take 6 months (unless Dubya talks him into resigning, but then maybe Dubya doesn't mind the recession so much.) IMHO the NAPM number yesterday was a very bad indicator, worse than even the gloom that's already priced into the market. In the next couple of weeks the full impact of the Holiday season consumer spending drop will hit us in full. The "soft landing" we're going to know about after 1Q01 is going to be of the BRICK WALL variety on both the consumer and capex levels. I think we have to wait all the way until Q4 of this year (at least) for things to start to noticeably improve, and long investors won't be a merry group before that time. No new-all-time-high days this year, folks. I don't see a bottom for a while yet, and AG couldn't change it even if he wanted to, which he doesn't. Let us not forget that much of this gloom is simply the inevitable dark-side of the crime-enhanced phony mania. In keeping with the laws of physics. --QS