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To: mishedlo who wrote (8385)	1/3/2001 12:26:04 PM
From: mishedlo	Respond to of 13572

So Much for an End to Tax-Loss Selling, and Don't Bank on an Early Cut thestreet.com By Aaron L. Task Senior Writer 1/2/01 8:29 PM ET SAN FRANCISCO -- The new year opened on a decidedly depressing note for those who own equities. By day's end, it had become pretty clear that tax-related selling did not cease just because the calendar changed. That contributed mightily to today's declines of 1.3% for the Dow, 2.8% for the S&P 500 and 7.2% for the Nasdaq Composite, the seventh-largest percentage drop in its history. But tax issues didn't seem an obvious culprit this morning, as people focused on the starkly weaker-than-expected NAPM report (more on that in a minute). Nor at midday, when I noted in the Columnist Conversation the following observation from Sean Mueller of Mueller Capital Management in Denver: Losses today are being caused by people selling the highfliers such as Brocade (BRCD:Nasdaq - news), Juniper Networks (JNPR:Nasdaq - news), Check Point Software (CHKP:Nasdaq - news), and Veritas (VRTS:Nasdaq - news). These stocks had to get hit because people still wanted to sell them [prior to Dec. 31], but didn't want to take the tax hit in 2000. Mutual funds not wanting to sell and hurt their own performance were buying and supporting these stocks on Friday trying to protect their quarter. Nobody is buying these stocks today. Mueller's small hedge fund (he wouldn't disclose its size) has no positions in the aforementioned, which closed off between 17% and 24% each. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq 100 dumped 9.1% as some of the winners of 2000 such as Oracle (ORCL:Nasdaq - news), Siebel Systems (SEBL:Nasdaq - news), Handspring (HAND:Nasdaq - news) and i2 Technologies (ITWO:Nasdaq - news) also suffered big declines. A belief that tax issues were largely responsible for the rough start to 2001 suggests this, too, shall pass. Yet paradoxically, many of the same pundits pointing to the (maxi) tax factor also joined in the cry of salvation now rising to near full throttle: Save us, Uncle Alan, save us. Uncle Alan, of course, being Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan, on whom many investors are again calling to lower interest rates prior to the Fed's meeting on Jan. 30-31. In addition to the continued pain in stocks, the Fed-ease-now camp also pointed to today's NAPM data as further proof of the need for "emergency" action. Indeed, the National Association of Purchasing Management's index of manufacturing activity fell to 43.7 in December, its lowest level since April 1991 (coincidentally (?) during the last Bush administration). NAPM was at 47.7 in November and was expected to fall to only 47. "I think there's a chance they could act between meetings," said David Jones, chief economist at Aubrey G. Lanston. "Friday would be the time, after they get the payroll numbers" for December. Specifically, if December nonfarm payrolls grew by 100,000 or less -- the consensus estimate is for 125,000 -- and if there were further declines in average hours worked, that would generate "added justification for a rate cut," Jones said. That, plus "reinforcing declines in the stock market, and you certainly had that today."

To: mishedlo who wrote (8385)	1/3/2001 12:29:05 PM
From: bonnuss_in_austin	Respond to of 13572

RIMM again ... P/E still 1167 ... finance.yahoo.com Have to add to puts ... it's still the best bet, IMO. 'b-i-a' ###

To: mishedlo who wrote (8385)	1/3/2001 12:50:48 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13572

Greg on FNM I see it broke the 10 DMA and is rapidly plunging towards the 50 DMA. Does that break the uptrend if it breaks that? I have been using 10, 50, and 200. Any reasons for 25 that I should know about? Thanks M

To: mishedlo who wrote (8385)	1/3/2001 1:21:19 PM
From: Jim Fleming	Respond to of 13572

Re Fannie and Freddie 1. leverage is their business 2. service fees on refinancings will sky rocket in a lower interest rate environment. 3.This Congress will not fool with the goose that lays the golden eggs. 4. Fannie and Freddie are now service fee dependent entities that no longer are nearly as interest rate sensitive except as it effects the volume of business. 5. No major mortgage originator holds the loans they make, at least in the form of raw mortgages. Everything is packaged in securities form. Conclusion: Be careful about shorting Fannie and Freddie into lower rates. On the other hand I bought fnm at 57 1/2 a few months ago. I got itchy and traded it for a few bucks. I certainly would have been long gone at the current price. If the Fed should run into a currency problem in trying to manage the economy with rate reductions, that might set up a short opportunity (on a lot of things). Jim