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To: Tony Viola who wrote (124096)1/3/2001 2:36:05 PM
From: Hightechhooper  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
As I mentioned yesterday, if the fed was going to move before the jan 31 meeting it would be today or tomorrow. I am just releaved they got off the can and did something.

Although my feeling of panic is gone, I am now angry. Two and one half weeks ago they should have done this and because they didn't I lost REAL money. Not just losses on paper but because I had to liquidate portions of my position to cover margin calls I lost a substantial amount of real money that will never come back because the shares are gone. Yes, I take responsibility for buying so aggressively on margin but despite this the fed screwed up and me and people like me are the ones to suffer. All this happened because of a timing difference of two weeks by the fed. If they were in touch with financial markets at all they would have realized that their non move in December accelerated the already tighted credit market.

Now I have to find a point to write covered calls. The next several days is probably the best time but I want to write January 40's because I do not want to risk losing the stock. Anyone have any thoughts on this?



To: Tony Viola who wrote (124096)1/3/2001 2:44:04 PM
From: Robert Douglas  Respond to of 186894
 
Tony,

I listened to Wayne Angell this morning before the cut. He said that he thought the FOMC was divided at the last meeting and that the only reason they didn't cut was that they agreed to an inter-meeting conference call. Clearly the recession-level NAPM and the decline in the stock market demanded immediate action.

Angell felt strongly that the real Fed funds rate was way too high and that such a level of tightness in monetary policy was unacceptable even for another month.

I personally believe that there is still a long way to go on this easing and expect a FF rate 200 bp lower by summer's end.



To: Tony Viola who wrote (124096)1/3/2001 10:30:25 PM
From: Amy J  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Hi Tony, RE: "for little inflationary threat "

In Silicon Valley, the inflationary threat looked rather solid:

- local office leases were up significantly (for those companies that didn't lock-in LT leases)
- local rentals were up 40% in June-00 from Jan-00
- local housing jumped about 40% from April-99 to April-00
- NCG salaries were increasing significantly (labor was tight)
- last month PGE announced a 50% increase in gas & elec
- this month PGE announced a desire to increase another 10 to 15%

However, agreed, the economy had suddenly hit a cliff and the interest rate increases from last year were too severe.

Regards,
Amy J