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To: Think4Yourself who wrote (83339)	1/3/2001 2:45:57 PM
From: chowder	Respond to of 95453

Hi Q! You may be right. We may have left some profits on the table, but I'm puzzled. Why did AG lower the rates in this manner? Why did it catch everyone by surprise? Why didn't he wait until Friday? Is it political? Too many questions Q and no answers yet. In my opinion, it's best to lock in a good year's profits in a few days and let the next quarter or two take it's toll on these stocks. It'll be another year or more before we benefit from today's cuts. We still have 75 basis points that will be showing up shortly. Now if we can just get these E&P's moving, I'll sell them too. dabum

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (83339)	1/3/2001 2:57:20 PM
From: kodiak_bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

JQP, Yes, selling stocks into this rally may leave a few bucks on the table, but I'm a little more concerned with the abrupt nature and size of these cuts. It's a shocker, to say the least, unless there was somebody hereabouts who predicted it. Are we (the economy) in a deeper pot of kimch'i than we've been told? This business is about 85% art, and no more than 15% science/cogitation/numbers, imho. I sold ORCL at 31 3/8 today because I'm still of the opinion that I will own it this spring at 18 or 19. Cisco and Sun will be ownable at 25 and 18, respectively. It's just my opinion, but I'd rather own about twice as much ORCL for the same cash for some crazy reason. The risk is, of course, that this is the big kahuna and I've missed it. Sheeeet, only January 3rd and I missed it already. Good luck to us all, but most especially to me!! (I believe that's the closing line to "The Investor's Prayer.") Regards, Kb

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (83339)	1/3/2001 3:17:18 PM
From: que seria	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

OT Tech: Agree on avoiding the thread's ka-ching tendency on leading techs after a rate cut. Big players may sell the news, but this isn't the same situation as taking profits in cyclicals when they bounce. The leading techs bounce this hard this fast because of their future. A question to ask, unless you are only a trader, is: what do I think the odds are that I will be up much more a year from now with a 20% cap gains rate, vs. flat or up less? Better yet, up a multiple of today's buy price 5 years from now? If you have studied and have reason to believe you are buying the techs that are going to remain/become leaders going forward, holding at least some of your position LT makes a lot of sense with the market down this much. I bought AVNX today at 41.5, it was 61 a bit later, and I'm holding all my shares. I know: "Snort, snort, snuffle, snuffle." It's a LT vs. ST thing. I have learned on this thread to take more profits in cyclicals (although with NG I really do think "it's different this time," IT and LT, for fundamental reasons much discussed). When the fundamentals disconnect from the technicals, one possibility is that the technicals revert back to a trendline dictated by the fundamentals. In other words: the hubris of believing that sticking with my view of the IT or LT trend will serve me better than respecting the ST market and sector moves that so many here trade on for all stocks. Problem is: you have to be right an incredible amount of the time in ST trading to do as well as LT holding of tech gems at today's pre-rate-cut prices. This only works buying the right companies at the right prices. I like optical (AVNX, JDSU), storage (NTAP), and communications chips (PMCS, RFMD), among others.