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To: GVTucker who wrote (124105)	1/3/2001 2:53:02 PM
From: Gary Ng	Respond to of 186894

GV, Re: There are imbalances in the economy that will need time to cure. An interest rate cut isn't a substitute But interest rate cut(and raise) does provide some cushion to smooth the things out. gary

To: GVTucker who wrote (124105)	1/3/2001 3:00:53 PM
From: Robert Douglas	Respond to of 186894

An interest rate cut isn't a substitute. But it is necessary to buy time for the imbalances to be corrected. There is absolutely no justification for the Fed funds rate to be 4% above the core rate of inflation. Even gold, which you mentioned a while back, has gotten weak futures.tradingcharts.com and is still down on a day when the FOMC cuts rates a half a point. This move was urgently needed and the Fed was right in making it. As for natural gas; this has been coming for years and has been one reason I have been invested in the drillers and oil service stocks. It makes paying a high gas bill almost a pleasure! <g>

To: GVTucker who wrote (124105)	1/3/2001 3:27:19 PM
From: Diamond Jim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 186894

"GM wouldn't have reported car sales down 20% about an hour ago." GV, I think I also heard Ford was down 17% in December. jim

To: GVTucker who wrote (124105)	1/3/2001 4:21:28 PM
From: L. Adam Latham	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

GVTucker: Re: Economy What is your opinion on how the 1/2 point rate reduction will affect mortgage interest rates? Was this much of a reduction already factored in to current rates, or might they decline further over the next few weeks? I may be househunting in the next few weeks, and this looks like the best opportunity in quite a while (for those of us not paying cash for a house). Thanks, Adam

To: GVTucker who wrote (124105)	1/3/2001 4:37:04 PM
From: Mary Cluney	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 186894

GVTucker, <<<Natural gas prices aren't the end all, of course. If the economy is fine fundamentally, GM wouldn't have reported car sales down 20% about an hour ago.>>> I know I am out of my elements discussing economics with the likes of you, but here goes anyway. When will we ever be free from imminent energy crisis? But, we in the United States are far better off than any other economy vis a vis energy. Even if we have stupid energy policy, we have a lot of cushion, in that by just being less wasteful and energy efficiency conscious, we could delay energy armageddon. Other economies have far less margin for error. As for GM and the other US car makers are concerned, fewer talented people are going into that business and their lack of success is clearly correlated. GM has long been run by bean counters instead of car designers, engineers, or even marketers. (let that be a warning for Intel). What makes our economy fundamentally strong is the depth and quality of our human capital. What the dotcom phase/period (1994-1999) of our economy demonstrated was that we had more talent, creativity and energy than anyone thought we had. It is only a harbinger of good things to come. You are not old enough to remember, but Germany and Japan were devastated by poor leadership that led their countries to complete disintegration and ruin. After World War II, Japanese and German economies were in complete ruin. About the only thing they had was human capital - and nothing near the human capital that we have now - and look how quickly they created new economies. Germany and Japan had nothing like the human capital factories that we have in the golden triangle, Palo Alto, Boulder, Colo., Austin, Tx, Cambridge, Ma.,.... Our economy is fundamentally strong. Mary

To: GVTucker who wrote (124105)	1/4/2001 2:35:43 AM
From: Joseph Pareti	Respond to of 186894

Re If the economy is fine fundamentally, GM wouldn't have reported car sales down 20% about an hour ago. well if your net worth is 1/2 or 1/3 of what it was not so long ago, and even worse if you BORROWED against your net worth, the last thing you would want to do is buy a new car, no? Re There are imbalances in the economy that will need time to cure. An interest rate cut isn't a substitute. right you are. I would start looking at those folks that in the late 90's turned Wall Street into a giant Ponzi scheme, Mary Meeeker being first on the list. AG 's job seems to be around dealing with the insanity instilled into the system by some individuals, just like the rate cut in late 1998 was much determined by the LTCM thing. The basic question is whether the system can afford nurturing and maintaining the various Meekers and Meriwhethers du jour.