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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (9758)	1/3/2001 5:30:16 PM
From: Jdaasoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev: Let's take this rally while we have it for all it's worth. If I think about these DEC computer sales numbers for too long, I may be tempted to short HP at these prices. They are now a primarily a PC company exposed to 1) a classic high inventory distribution model and 2) the balance thought a even weaker financially retail mass merchant PC company. DELL is selling below their cost to maintain maybe even increase market share. The balance of the computer industry I do not have a clue about how bad it is. john ebns.com Survey shows retail PC sales fell 24% in December Reuters (01/03/01, 02:47:47 PM EST) Personal computer unit sales in the retail and mail-order market declined by about 24 percent in December from a year ago -- the largest year-to-year decline ever -- according to preliminary results released on Wednesday by research firm PC Data. ``It looks like the market is hitting the reset button on the PC market,'' PC Data analyst Roger Lanctot said. ``They have to get to a lower price point, or a different configuration, orsomething, because what they are doing now is not working.'' The December snapshot of sales in the retail and mail-order market -- about one-third of the overall personal computer market -- was the fifth in a row that showed a year-over-year decline. ``In August we had the first negative comparison of monthly sales,'' Lanctot said. ``And the declines have grown progressively greater each month after that. For the full year 2000 we have the first negative annual comparison ever.'' For the full year, unit sales of PCs in the retail and mail-order group were down 0.8 percent, at 10.1 million units, compared with 1999. ``A spike occurred during the week before Christmas, but it fell short of the boost needed to lift overall sales during the holiday shopping season,'' said Stephen Baker, PC Data's vice president of technology products research and analysis. He cited the success of internet service provider rebate programs in 1999, a slowing economic outlook, slightly higher prices in 2000, and the lack of a compelling upgrade rationale for consumers who purchased PCs over the last two years as reasons for the declines. PC makers such as Apple Computer Inc., Gateway Inc. and Compaq Computer Corp. have said their results have been hurt by weak sales to consumers.

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (9758)	1/3/2001 6:39:47 PM
From: U.B. Green	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 30051

Zeev, I'm looking for an exit from the market in Jan. Naturally, I would like that exit to be at the high. (2850-3050 or whatever?) Then, on Feb. 3, I am leaving on a 17 day vacation. So, you see, there is a reason for my madness. I know I don't want to have more than 0-25% exposure on Feb. 3 when I leave. So, what I need kind sir, is an exit date, (of course this exit date may be changed and modified at any time) at the high, in Jan. ( I need a couple days to pack and stuff)<g> Then, I'll be on my way. I'm taking a break! Yeah! Zeev, if you're right, Feb. 3rd is a good time to be away. I know I'm asking a lot, but this way I won't have to ask you to "take care" of the market for me in my absence in Feb. <g> Regards, Bernie