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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (11696)	1/4/2001 1:45:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78568

Okay, Wallace, after considering your post, I've taken profits now on JPM also. (selling 2/3 today). I know I've posted on this stock since '96 - and it has always seemed to me, and from the lack of response here - to others as well I guess - as a really boring, mediocre Dow Dog that nobody wants - a stock with a high 'shame' index. Been a tough one for me to stick with too. Paul S.

To: Wallace Rivers who wrote (11696)	5/11/2001 5:30:05 PM
From: Paul Senior	Respond to of 78568

Cruise ship stocks: I'm still tracking CCL and RCL. I've started a position today in AMCV. I say this one's a real cigar butt. Negative earnings now and in most of the past few years. And not doing better now. With gas prices high, they will suffer still more. Outdated ships mostly; they are generally small, so economies of scale don't seem to work for them. They're American registered vessels. The more expense that that entails is offset by one great feature - they have a lock on USA's coastal market (including between Hawaiian Islands. I haven't a clue how or if AMCV will ever make money. I'm disappointed in how Samuel Zell has not managed his investment here. While he gets media credit for doing great in his real estate stuff (Equity Office Properties, others), and he's supposed to be a great value investor or vulture specialist (he's the one who's referred to as "The Grave Dancer" in media accounts), he's done very poorly for investors with AMCV. And he also has done very poorly for stockholders of his Chart House restaurant chain. He, as the controlling shareholder and chairman of AMCV and CHT,just doesn't seem to have a business plan that works or even that anyone (I) can understand. I'm going to bet that there's a pony somewhere in the pile though. The stock's at a multiyear low, and so p/bk and p/sales look very good. Maybe the stock's as low as it's ever been ---- until the market opens on Monday (ouch!). The issues with AMCV are not new or surprising (as far as I can surmise), yet in past years, people thought enough of the company to value the now $5 stock at prices $15 or more. It seems to me that there ought to be a market for US coastal cruises, and that if it's decimated now because of recessionary or fuel issues, MAYBE at some point business will recover enough to enable a better-managed AMCV to show profits. To me, either AMCV is going to crater (maybe bankruptcy??) or else the stock at some point is a double from here. I'll bet the latter. Paul S.